Analysts argued about proposal of Baku and Ankara to become mediators on Ukraine

Baku/28.02.22/Turan: The information and analytical portal "Caucasian Knot" tried to get an answer from Azerbaijani experts to the question about possible mediation of the Baku-Ankara tandem in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

Azerbaijan and Turkey came up with a proposal to mediate between Moscow and Kiev after the Kremlin asked them to do so which needs to avoid prolonging hostilities in Ukraine, Director of Turan News Agency Mehman Aliyev believes. The initiative to mediate comes from Turkey, as its economy is being damaged by this military conflict, political analyst Natig Jafarli believes.

According to the "Caucasian Knot", on February 26, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Erdogan had offered to organize talks with Russia. The Azerbaijani side confirmed the talks between Aliyev and Zelensky and announced the humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

On February 26, Putin and Aliyev during a telephone conversation discussed the development of the situation due to the Russian ilitary operation in Ukraine and exchanged views on a number of topical issues on the bilateral and regional agenda, according to the Kremlin website.

The message of the Azerbaijani side about the conversation of the Presidents was also brief. "During the telephone conversation, the situation due to the escalation of events in Ukraine, as well as issues of Russian-Azerbaijani relations were discussed," the press service of the President of Azerbaijan said.

Moscow could have asked for mediation between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkey, says Mehman Aliyev, director of the Turan news agency. "Turkey and Azerbaijan even before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine offered mediation between Kiev and Moscow. In mid-January, President Ilham Aliyev paid a visit to Ukraine and, upon his return, immediately spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan also offered several times to organize a meeting in Turkey between Zelensky and Putin, including in the 2+2 format (Azerbaijan and Turkey, Russia and Ukraine). Therefore, Baku and Ankara may well become real intermediaries between Moscow and Kiev," Aliyev told the correspondent of the "Caucasian Knot".

He compared what was happening in Ukraine and the events in Georgia in 2008. "Here we involuntarily have to draw parallels with the events of 2008 in Georgia. Then the war also lasted 3-4 days and Russia, having taken control of certain territories outside the South Ossetian region, went to negotiations. And now Moscow, having advanced from different directions to the territory of Ukraine, is now interested in negotiations to convert military advantage into diplomatic success," Aliyev believes.

Russia is not interested in a prolonged war, since it requires large resources and sacrifices, reputational costs, Mehman Aliyev added. "It is now advantageous for the Kremlin to stop the war on terms of Ukraine declaring its neutral status and securing Russia approximately on the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This will allow Putin to show the Russian people that he stopped the "Ukrainian threat", achieved its non-alignment, although in reality Ukraine was not going to be accepted into NATO in the foreseeable future, as well as demonstrate that Russia protected the Russians in the Donbass. Besides, Russia would show the world, they say, "here, you see, we did not have a goal to occupy Ukraine." On the other hand, the desperate resistance of the Ukrainian army and people also dictates to the Kremlin the need for an early exit from the war," Aliyev said.

 To his thinking, the official Kiev will also benefit from a stable peace with Moscow with security guarantees and no resumption of hostilities. "Ukraine, having temporarily lost control over its territories in the east and Crimea, will have the opportunity for peaceful development, accelerated integration into Europe, and accession to the EU. By the way, the military actions have raised Zelensky's rating high in Ukrainian society. Six months ago, his victory in the next Presidential election in 2024 seemed a big question. Now he has become the leader of the nation. So the confrontation with Russia that has now resulted in military actions, allowed him to consolidate society around himself and become a hero of the nation. On the other hand, after the military conflict, he will get good trump cards to crack down on the oligarchs, many of whom fled the country in this difficult hour for the country, and will confidently implement reforms to combat corruption and democratize the country," Aliyev said.

As for the West, according to the analyst, the US and the EU are also satisfied with the development of events described by him. "Partial satisfaction and appeasement of Russia's interests will allow the West to implement a plan to accept Ukraine into the European family and expand its influence in the post-Soviet space and at the same time maintain partnership with the Russian Federation, which is still a profitable economic partner in terms of a large market for sales and a source of energy supply. As a matter of fact, the West has taken no murderous sanctions against Russia. Such would be the refusal to purchase Russian oil and gas. The West has done nothing even for the collapse of oil prices, although the United States could open its reserves and influence the producing countries to raise the production of hydrocarbons," Aliyev said.

All things considered, the mediation of Ankara and Baku can be quite real and meetings of the delegations of Russia and Ukraine can take place in both capitals. According to him, the signing of the Moscow Declaration could formally affect the initiation of mediation. "The Declaration creates a basis for cooperation on issues of this kind. But it's not even about any documents, but the level of personal mutual trust between the leaders of the two countries," Aliyev explained.

He added that the meetings of the two countries' delegations could take place in Baku. In particular, Azerbaijan is convenient because it occupies a neutral position and is a post-Soviet country with which Russia and Ukraine are more connected with a positive history, say, than with Turkey or Poland.

When it comes to the reintegration of Donbass and Crimea into Ukraine, this, according to Mehman Aliyev, can be solved in the more distant future - after the democratization of Ukraine, its becoming an EU member, increasing its attractiveness for new generations of residents of unrecognized republics, as well as possible prospects for the transformation of society in Russia itself.

The proposals of Ankara and Baku on mediation are personal initiatives of Aliyev and Erdogan, and Moscow did not ask them to do so, believes the head of the Center for research "Republic" Natig Jafarli. "Russia insists on mediation by Belarus and negotiations in Minsk. Belarus is its ally. Conducting negotiations in Minsk will already predetermine the conclusion of peace on the Kremlin's terms. On the other hand, by holding talks in Minsk, Moscow wants to return Belarus to the international community, from which it has actually already been expelled," Jafarli told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

In his opinion, the mediation initiative comes from Turkey. "Here, even I would say Turkey has more interest. Turkey does not want to lose either Russia or Ukraine. Secondly, the war is taking place next door to Turkey – the unfolding of hostilities on the Black Sea poses threats to the security of the Turkish state and its economic interests. Already the north-western part of the Black Sea is closed to ships. Shipping here may stop altogether and this will cause huge losses to Turkey. In addition, the escalation of tensions between the West and the Russian Federation over Ukraine might lead to the fact that the West may demand that Turkey, as a NATO member, close the straits to Russian vessels and this will already lead to big problems for Ankara in relations with Moscow," Jafarli believes.

Therefore, he continued, the initiative of mediation between Kiev and Moscow most likely comes from Erdogan, and Aliyev joined it at his request. "Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin have a high level of mutual trust which Erdogan does not have, because Moscow and Turkey have disagreements on a number of international and regional issues. And the Turkish leader could ask Aliyev to initiate mediation with him. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is also interested in resolving the conflict as soon as possible, because it has economic interests in Ukraine, and in particular in the energy sector and other spheres, as well as taking into account active cooperation with Russia. Now the high level of political dialogue is also secured by the Declaration on Allied Cooperation," Jafarli said.

He added that Baku could well host a meeting of the delegations of Ukraine and Russia. "Azerbaijan has experience in holding such meetings. Meetings of the US and NATO commanders with the Chief of the Russian General Staff have already been cited in Baku in the past. And now Azerbaijan is one of the few countries that takes a neutral position in the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia. It is also comfortable for Kiev to negotiate in Baku which advocates a settlement of the conflict based on the principle of territorial integrity, rather than in Belarus, which is an ally of Russia and a springboard for military strikes against Ukraine," Jafarli said.

Added to this cann be that, from the point of view of logistics, it would also be convenient for the Russian side to hold a meeting in Baku, taking into account the closure of EU airspace for Russia and to fly to Azerbaijan as quickly as possible than to Turkey, the analyst concluded.—0—