Are Armenians looking for a way to preserve the Russian presence in Karabakh?

Baku/08.06.23/Turan: As the expiration date of the five-year mandate for the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC) in Karabakh approaches in 2025, Yerevan, Khankendi, and Russia are actively seeking ways to maintain the presence of the RMK despite opposition from Baku. The Armenian population hopes that Yerevan and Moscow will find a solution that allows the RPC to continue operating, thereby effectively preserving the unrecognized republic within Azerbaijan. This explains the limited outflow of Armenians from the Karabakh economic region.

According to Russian political scientist Mikhail Alexandrov in an interview with Armenian News - NEWS.am, the most favorable option to maintain Russian presence would be a decision by the UN Security Council granting Russia a mandate to govern Nagorno-Karabakh for a period of 20 years. However, he acknowledges the low probability of international support for such a move due to divisions among the superpowers stemming from the Ukrainian conflict.

Alexandrov suggests an alternative approach for Russia, which involves unilaterally declaring that, since Azerbaijan has failed to achieve a resolution of the Karabakh issue, Russia cannot allow ethnic cleansing and will maintain its contingent until the conflict between Azerbaijan and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh is resolved. The viability of this option ultimately depends on Moscow's political will.

Extending the stay of the RPC in Karabakh has become a crucial aspect of the negotiation process. There appears to be alignment between Yerevan and Moscow on this issue, as indicated by the Russian side's proposal to defer discussions on the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) to a later date. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed full support for this position and revealed that the Armenian delegation proposed including an item on the extension of the RMK's term in the final statement at the leaders' summit in Sochi in 2022, although the proposal was rejected.

Political analyst David Harutyunov suggests that prolonging the presence of the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh would primarily serve as a means of exerting pressure or influence on Azerbaijan. He recommends leveraging the diplomatic resources of Iran and Russia to secure an extension of the RPC's status in Karabakh.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has consistently stated his intention not to extend the presence of the Russian army in Karabakh beyond 2025.