Azerbaijan watches with caution Russia's actions in the zone of the recent war

Bakı/23.11.20/Turan: On November 21, Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers Lavrov and Shoigu visited Yerevan and Baku. At a meeting with Prime Minister Pashinyan in Yerevan, Lavrov made important statement on the return of Azerbaijani refugees to Garabakh. Defense Minister Shoigu called on his Armenian counterpart to abide strictly by the ceasefire of November 9, 2020 and not to violate the ceasefire. The defense ministers of Russia and Armenia signed a document regulating the activities of Russian peacekeepers in Garabakh.

At a meeting in Baku, President I. Aliyev told Shoigu that, "the implementation of the trilateral statement of November 9 is going well and demonstrates the readiness of both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides to put an end to the long-term conflict and come to a political settlement."

According to Lavrov, Russia is coordinating with Azerbaijan on specific ways of solving humanitarian problems in the interests of returning people. It is not known what was said behind closed doors. In particular, the issue of the presence of Armenian forces in Karabakh, which refuse to disarm and leave Karabakh, has not been clarified.

Political scientist Elhan Shainoglu, in a post published on his page emphasizes Lavrov's statement about the tendencies to disrupt the implementation of the trilateral Statement of November 9. “Each side has declared its intention to implement the Statement, but there are attempts to change the meaning of the peacekeeping operation. While this is happening secretly,” he said.

Shainoglu believes that Lavrov could mean the Armenian side, which sked to postpone for ten   days the date of withdrawal from Kalbajar. This time Armenians used this time to burn houses and deforestation, however, Lavrov and Putin do not specify the addressee in their statements.

Political analyst Arastun Orujlu told Turan that, unfortunately, the worst expectations come true after the signing of the so-called "agreement". “If we compare the behavior of the Russian side before and after the introduction of troops, then the dynamics here is clearly not in favor of Azerbaijan. After securing its military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan, Russia began to introduce into the agenda precisely those issues that are not signs o in favor of our country. This was to be expected, since Moscow did not like the very fact and level of military operations conducted by Azerbaijan. However, at that time Moscow did not have enough mechanisms to influence Baku for many reasons. Therefore, Putin's plan, the implementation of which began from the moment of signing the so-called trilateral statement, was needed as a very important fulcrum for managing all processes in the region.

I was critical of this agreement from the very beginning, as I believed that it would untie the hands of Russia, and it happened. Today Moscow is putting pressure on Azerbaijan in several directions. One of them is closer cooperation not only with Armenia, moreover, even with the puppet self-styled regime in Karabakh. It can be seen that the achievement of the assigned tasks in front of Russian foreign policy is entering the next, more important phase. It is not in vain that Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov started talking about some geopolitical interests in Baku. Although Lavrov's statement at first glance was addressed to no one, it is clear that this is primarily about Turkey, which is a reliable ally of Azerbaijan. I think that discussion of issues related to the so-called peacekeepers in Yerevan, and not in Baku, is also one of the ways to put pressure on Azerbaijan. This pressure will continue until Moscow achieves maximum concessions from Baku. This suggests that Azerbaijan must urgently build a plan for interaction with Russia, where all options and nuances that should be expected from Russia should be taken into account without exception. Naturally, one plan is not enough and it can only serve as a basis for developing Azerbaijan's strategy in the current situation. The first and most important point in this plan should be the implementation of practical steps for military cooperation with Turkey. Only in this case, Russia's behavior can change,” Arastun Orujlu said.

Political scientist Ilgar Velizade, in an interview with Turan, political scientist Ilgar Velizade noted that official information about the negotiations is scarce, but it is clear that the details of the settlement process are being agreed: the deployment of refugees, peacekeeping forces.

Referring to the signing of an agreement between Defense Minister Shoigu and the Armenian side, I. Velizade suggests that it is dedicated to the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from the region. Therefore, the Russian delegation did not sign any documents with the Azerbaijani side. The Armenians are trying to keep their armed forces in Garabagh, but the trilateral statement says about the complete withdrawal of any military formations from the region, so the process is difficult for Russia. The Russian side explains to the Armenians that the Azerbaijanis are closely watching the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces, and a monitoring center is being created in Azerbaijan. Attempts by Armenians to leave paramilitary units in Garabagh are senseless.

“It seems that the Armenian side, having signed the Statement, is trying to catch up with the departed train and make adjustments. When Pashinyan signed the statement, the Armenians were dumbfounded, and now they are coming to their senses and want to bargain for preferences. The Armenians cannot do this. From the words of S. Lavrov, it is clear that in Yerevan he was preparing them for Baku's intention to return Azerbaijanis to the liberated regions. Attempts of Armenians to save something from the former "NKR" will be neutralized by Azerbaijan and Turkey. The desires of the Armenians to obtain the status of Garabagh, to preserve the previous regime there can be discussed. The Russian side knows the categorical position of Azerbaijan, and the status is not mentioned in the Statement. I think that the Russian side suppresses the attempts of the Armenians to impose the questions they need.

After the return of the Kalbajar and Lachin regions, it will be necessary to ensure the connection of the regions with the rest of Azerbaijan, and this traffic will pass through the Armenian-populated part of Garabagh, controlled by Russia. Hence, a negotiation topic on the safety of communications passing through the Daghlig Garabagh may appear,” Velizade said.

The MP Eldar Ibrahimov found it difficult to share his opinion because, apart from what was said on television about the talks in Yerevan and Baku, the public was not informed of anything else. He does not see any political significance in the fact that first, the Russian delegation flew to Yerevan, and then the negotiations continued in Baku.

“It is clear that important government negotiations are underway. Apart from the official information, there is no other information. I cannot speak out about the negotiations at the state level,” the deputy told Turan. — 0—