COP29 Has Arrived. When Will the Peace Agreement Be Signed?

November 8 is celebrated as Victory Day in Azerbaijan. In 2020, Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity through a 44-day war and a one-day military operation in 2023. Although a ceasefire declaration was signed between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia, a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan has yet to be signed, even four years later.

Both Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership have stated in various speeches that most of the articles of the peace treaty draft have been agreed upon. This week, both sides announced they had delivered their latest responses regarding the negotiations. Experts believe that certain factors may give momentum to the process.

In a statement released on November 8, Victory Day, Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs highlighted significant progress in the bilateral negotiations on the draft peace treaty. However, challenges and threats still persist: "Particularly, the continued territorial claims against our country in Armenia’s Constitution and the presence of forces that could drive Armenia into renewed military aggression remain obstacles to lasting peace."

Hikmet Babaoğlu, a member of the Milli Majlis's Committee on Defense, Security, and Anti-Corruption, told Turan that the time is ripe for reaching an outcome in the peace talks.

He noted that certain events have already provided a push in this direction: “One of these events was the elections held in the United States. On the other hand, by 2025, we may expect a conclusive view on the outcomes of the war between Russia and Ukraine. While these two issues might not seem directly linked to peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they are indeed significant to the process.”

According to Babaoğlu, there were two centers attempting to dissuade Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from peace: “One of these, following the U.S. elections, may no longer provide the previous level of support. The second is France. However, at the European Political Community conference held yesterday in Budapest, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France opposes imperialism and does not want to discuss the redrawing of borders. This could be seen as a softening of France's position, which I believe may also influence Armenia’s stance.”

He added that following last month’s meeting in Kazan between the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia, it became clear that the peace process is being seriously discussed: “Therefore, I believe we might witness certain steps being taken in 2025, but a final peace agreement might still be delayed until 2027. This is because Azerbaijan’s primary goal is for Armenia to eliminate its territorial claims against our country from its Constitution. We made this mistake once in our history. In 1918, the Prime Minister of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, Fətəli Xan Xoyski, wrote in a letter that we stopped the war and granted Yerevan to Armenia, expecting in return that they would not claim Göyçə, Nakhchivan, or Karabakh. At that time, they should have obtained a signed commitment from the Armenians on this.”

Political analyst Nəsimi Məmmədli told AzadlıqRadio that while talks were previously mediated by Russia and then by Brussels, they are now being held in a bilateral format. According to the expert, statements from both sides suggest that there is political will to sign a peace treaty, and a significant portion of the issues has already been agreed upon. However, pointing to the fact that the agreed and disagreed issues have not been disclosed to the public, he said that certain elements must definitely be included in a treaty between the two countries: “These include a mutual commitment not to use military force against each other, the absence of territorial claims, changes in legislation to reflect this, and clauses related to disarmament.”

Məmmədli emphasized that since the details of the treaty are not fully known, it is difficult to say what disagreements exist. The political analyst suggested that the parties might be struggling to agree on compensation for damages to Azerbaijani territory.

An analyst believes that the election of Donald Trump as president in the United States could create a more favorable environment for the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan: “I think it will not take much longer to sign the peace agreement.”