Expert: Russia can form a base in Karabakh on the basis of a military contingent

On October 10, two warships from the Caspian flotilla of the Russian Federation's Navy made an unexpected arrival in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense characterized the visit as an "unofficial friendly visit," but the geopolitical implications of this development have sparked considerable speculation.

Simultaneously, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev paid a visit to Baku on the same day. An official statement revealed that during his meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, discussions centered on the cooperation between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran in the context of the "North-South" Transport Corridor.

Elman Nasirov, a deputy from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP), stressed in an interview with Turan that Azerbaijan's deepening relationship with Russia should not be viewed as a departure from its engagement with other global powers. Nasirov asserted that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, maintains an independent foreign policy that serves the interests of its people. He added that Azerbaijan seeks to maintain equitable relations with various global centers of power, and the warming ties with Moscow should not be construed as adversarial to Washington or Brussels.

In the backdrop of Armenia's less-than-friendly stance towards Russia, the Russian political elite appears increasingly inclined to compare Azerbaijan and Armenia. Nasirov suggests that the Kremlin's respect and trust in Azerbaijan have grown due to Armenia's anti-Russian disposition.

Opposition politician Fuad Gahramanli expressed concerns about Russia's intentions, particularly in light of the arrival of a Russian missile carrier in Baku. Gahramanli speculated that the Azerbaijani government might have entered into certain obligations in exchange for Russia's neutrality during the recent military operations in Karabakh. He questioned why Azerbaijani authorities remained relatively silent during the process of liberating Karabakh from separatists during the 44-day war. Gahramanli suggested that Russia's actions, such as establishing 25 watchpoints in Karabakh, could signal its intent to create a military base in the region after 2025.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, in an interview with Radio Azadlig voiced concerns about the Russian military contingent's presence in Azerbaijan, emphasizing that it might not be necessary in Karabakh since separatists have been disarmed and Azerbaijani forces have entered Khankendi. Shahinoglu pointed out that recent conflicting statements from Russia have added uncertainty regarding the withdrawal of the Russian contingent by 2025. He speculated that Patrushev's visit may be an effort to gauge Azerbaijan's stance on this matter.

Shahinoglu further warned that Russia could be contemplating the establishment of a military base from its existing contingent, a potentially perilous development. He urged the Azerbaijani government to engage in diplomatic efforts to persuade Russia to withdraw its military contingent from the region, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a spirit of partnership in the region.