Former ambassador: 'The purpose of the Moscow meeting after 2025...'

Foreign ministers from Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia are scheduled to meet in Moscow on May 19 for the next round of negotiations on a draft peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

MP from the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party Hikmet Babaoglu, in an interview with Radio Azadlig, stressed the importance of any peaceful meeting and stressed that some provisions of the peace statement signed in 2020 were not implemented. Babaoglu called on Russia to pressure Armenia to open the Zangazur corridor and restore relations with western regions of Azerbaijan, as well as remove militant groups from the region. The integration of the Armenian community into Azerbaijan and the creation of conditions for peace are also expected.

Armenian officials, however, claim that they no longer have armed forces in Karabakh and argue that the "Defense Army" of Karabakh is independent. They also assert that the 2020 statement refers to opening a road from Armenia, not a corridor.

Azer Gasimli, the head of the Institute of Political Management, expressed limited expectations for the Moscow meeting, suggesting that Russia will reiterate that the West cannot have a presence in the region. He predicted that the parties might reaffirm their commitment to the 2020 statement as the only potential outcome.

Babaoglu emphasized the need for concrete steps toward peace, citing the approaching end of the temporary peacekeepers' term in the region, the urgency of increased freight traffic and communications along the middle line of the Silk Road, and the necessity of a peace agreement for Armenia to lift the blockade.

Gasimli did not anticipate a peace agreement being signed soon, despite Nikol Pashinyan's acknowledgment of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, including Karabakh. Gasimli explained that Russia's influence in the region could pose a challenge for Azerbaijan, primarily for President Ilham Aliyev.

In recent years, Azerbaijan and Armenia have engaged in peace talks mediated by both Russia and the European Union (EU). Babaoglu stated that it does not matter to Azerbaijan whether peace is achieved through Moscow or Brussels, but the prospect of Western platforms seems more realistic as it entails participation in the restoration of transport and communication lines between Asia and Europe in the future.

Gasimli also believed that the Brussels format aligns with Azerbaijan's national interests, suggesting that any agreement involving Moscow would likely be temporary and formal, with Russia aiming to maintain its military presence in Karabakh.

Arif Mammadov, the former head of Azerbaijan's Permanent Mission to the European Union, shared similar views, asserting that Moscow aims to impede the processes involving Washington and Brussels and prevent the strengthening of the West's position in the South Caucasus.

Mammadov argued that the conditions for signing a peace agreement are not yet ripe, as serious issues remain unresolved. Although there is an agreement on recognizing each other's territorial integrity, no documents have been signed by Washington or Brussels. Mammadov also sensed a lack of sincerity between Pashinyan and Aliyev, and he believed that Moscow still intends to maintain its monopoly in the region.

Contrarily, Mammadov perceived the situation as more tense and saw no positive trends. He considered the meeting of the Council of the European Union with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Prague, attended by the French president in October 2022, to be more successful. Mammadov noted that Charles Michel's statement touched on the opening of transport, but deeper issues, such as corridor control, remain. With two years left before the peacekeepers' departure and a two-year construction period for the road, uncertainties arise regarding the future. The goal of the Moscow meeting, according to Mammadov, is to secure Russia's position in the region beyond 2025.