From where Azerbaijan can expect Russian danger...

On July 20, the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made remarks in response to Turkish President Recep Erdogan's statement regarding the withdrawal of peacekeepers from Karabakh in 2025. Zakharova emphasized that Turkey is not a signatory to the trilateral statement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia dated November 9, 2020, which forms the basis for the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region. She pointed out that the extension of the peacekeepers' stay for another five years is outlined in this agreement.

Zakharova highlighted the ongoing tensions in the region, asserting that the continued presence of Russian peacekeepers is crucial given the current circumstances. However, her statement was interpreted with a double meaning by Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations and Inter-parliamentary Relations. Nasirov believes that Zakharova's remarks imply that if the situation in Karabakh worsens by 2025, it would be acceptable to prolong the presence of peacekeepers. He further suggested that Russia might manipulate the situation to create artificial tensions in the region to justify the continuation of their military presence.

Elman Nasirov, in an interview with Turan, also expressed concerns that Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine could impact the situation in Karabakh, allowing Russia to dictate its conditions and maintain its military presence in the region. Nasirov mentioned that Azerbaijan has international partners, including Turkey, Pakistan, and Israel, which may play significant roles in the situation.

Additionally, political commentator Arastun Orujlu atold Radio Azadlig that Zakharova's statement could be perceived as a threat to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, implying that Russia will use all available resources to keep its military presence in Karabakh. Orujlu suggested that Azerbaijan should strengthen its military-strategic borders, sign a peace treaty with Armenia, and be prepared for potential threats from Russia from various directions.

As a backdrop, in the 44-day second Karabakh war in 2020, Azerbaijan regained control over a part of Karabakh and seven adjacent districts. Russian peacekeepers are currently stationed in the Lachin corridor and along the line of contact in Karabakh. Peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been taking place intermittently with the mediation of Russia and the European Union, supported by the United States. However, a comprehensive peace agreement between the two parties has yet to be signed.