How Pezeşkian’s Victory Will Affect Iran-Azerbaijan Relations

Former Health Minister and ethnic Azerbaijani, Masoud Pezeshkian, won the Iranian presidential elections with 53.7% of the votes. Known for his reformist stance, his clean reputation, and his support for normalizing relations with the West, Pezeşkian pledged during his campaign to "extend a hand of friendship to everyone."

Before this election, tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran had started to ease. On May 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. They participated in the opening ceremonies of the "Khudaferin" and "Maiden Tower" hydrojunctions on the Araz River. Additionally, the creation of the "North-South" transport corridor was on the agenda. On the day Pezeşkian won the election, Ilham Aliyev congratulated him and invited him to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told journalists that relations with Iran are expected to develop more actively after the new president takes office: "A new president has been elected in Iran, and the Azerbaijani president congratulated him. We are interested in the implementation of previously agreed projects between Azerbaijan and Iran," said the minister.

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Control and Auditing Commission of the New Azerbaijan Party (YAP), told Turan that Pezeşkian's election resulted from the will of the people: "Regarding relations with Azerbaijan,   Pezeshkian's interviews and statements indicate that as a reformist president, he intends to take several reformist steps within the country. These steps could lead to warmer relations with Azerbaijan."

Nasirov recalled that Iran's new president speaks Azerbaijani at home and expressed hope that issues related to Azerbaijani schools in Iran would be resolved. According to him, forecasts of warming relations with the West, neighbors, and Azerbaijan align with the interests of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei: "Iran is currently in a blockade, under sanctions. This policy is crucial for official Tehran in the context of a severe economic crisis."

A YAP official noted that the main powers in Iran lie with the Supreme Leader: "However, the President of Iran also has significant authority to effect changes in the country. President Ilham Aliyev congratulated Iran's new president and invited him to visit Azerbaijan. We believe this will be an opportunity to resolve misunderstandings that have arisen in our bilateral relations."

Azar Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, reminded Azadliq Radio that  Pezeshkian was previously not allowed to run in the elections: "This time, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not allowed to participate in the elections, even though he is considered more conservative than   Pezeshkian. However,  Pezeshkian was allowed to run, speaking about reforms and improving relations with the West. The question arises: why did the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council allow   Pezeshkian to run? The first reason is that a seriously discontented environment had formed internally. It was like a boiling pot that needed to release some steam, which could be done by allowing such candidates to participate. The second reason was to attract people who had not intended to vote."

The political analyst believes that   Pezeshkian will not be allowed to make significant changes internally: "Only a semblance of reform is expected. The main goal is not just to reduce internal tension but also to ease the sanctions regime. It aims to improve relations with the European Union, if not with the United States."

Regarding relations with Azerbaijan, Gasimli said nothing would change: "The policy under Raisi will remain roughly the same. Although Masoud  Pezeshkian is an ethnic Turk, he is integrated into Iran's political system. Currently, the process is that they do not want to let the West and its values into this region, where the interests of the Azerbaijani government and the Iranian regime coincide. From this perspective, relations will continue on the same logical path. Iran is not our friend; it is temporarily the friend of the Azerbaijani government."