Opening of the Armenia-Turkey Border: 'Even if Russia doesn't want it, it can't openly hinder Turkey'

On July 30, the special representatives of the Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process (Ambassador Serdar Kılıç and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan) held their fifth meeting at the Alican-Margara border gate located on the common border of the two countries. According to TRT News, "The special representatives agreed to assess the technical needs that would be required if the Akyaka/Akhuryan railway border gate is opened in line with regional developments and to facilitate mutual visa procedures. They confirmed their agreement that the process, with the ultimate goal of full normalization, will continue without any preconditions."

These talks had been stalled for nearly two years.

Can the rapprochement and improvement of relations between Turkey and Armenia provide a positive impetus to the peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Azerbaijani and Turkish officials consistently emphasize that they have always acted from a common position on regional issues, including the Karabakh conflict. When Azerbaijani territories were occupied in the 1990s, Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in protest (in 1993).

The existing meetings related to cooperation between Turkey and Armenia have not been met with objections by official Baku. However, it has not yet been possible to get a response from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the possible impacts of these meetings on peace talks with Armenia.

According to Sabir Rustamkhanli, a deputy of the VI convocation of the Milli Majlis and chairman of the Civic Solidarity Party, the meetings between Turkish and Armenian officials do not mean that the opening of borders and easing of the visa regime will happen immediately. “Turkey's relations with Armenia have always been unequivocally linked to Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. If Baku does not sign a proper peace agreement with Yerevan and relations are not regulated, I do not believe that any agreement will be reached between Turkey and Armenia,” he told the Turan news agency.

Rustamkhanli noted that Armenia has certain territorial claims against Turkey: “At the same time, Armenia has a fabricated genocide claim (related to 1915). While all this is in the air, even if the talks continue, the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border in the near future is naive. Because diplomatic relations have not been established between Turkey and Armenia.”

According to Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, who spoke to Radio Azadliq, after the Second Karabakh War, President Ilham Aliyev said that Turkey is now independent in determining its policy towards Armenia: “If Turkey had not opened its border with Armenia for 30 years due to the occupation of Azerbaijani lands, now Azerbaijan has liberated its lands and Turkey is free to determine its policy in this direction.”

The expert emphasized that after the Second Karabakh War (2020), dialogue started between Ankara and Yerevan: “The Armenian authorities’ desire was for the Turkish borders to be opened and diplomatic relations to be restored even without signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But the Turkish leadership stresses that it will continue its dialogue with Armenia, but for the borders to be opened and diplomatic relations to be established, Yerevan must first resolve its issues with Azerbaijan. Erdogan even adds the opening of the 'Zangezur' corridor (a route expected to pass through Armenia’s Syunik region). Although this is not Azerbaijan’s main condition for a peace agreement, it seems that Turkey is not changing this policy.”

He believes that Turkey is trying to accelerate the peace issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijan's main condition remains in force – Armenia must remove clauses containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan from its constitution. I do not think that Turkey will open its border with Armenia before a peace agreement is signed between the two countries. However, their desire is for the dialogue process between Armenia and Azerbaijan to accelerate.”

Changes to the constitution have been a topic of discussion in Armenia for some time. However, the Armenian opposition does not consider the changes to the constitution in line with Azerbaijan’s demands to be correct. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that the constitution is an internal matter of Armenia and the necessity of its change did not arise from Baku’s demand.

Nevertheless, Elkhan Shahinoglu believes that while signing a peace agreement soon may be difficult, a framework agreement could be signed in a very short time: “This would give Turkey complete freedom to open its borders with Armenia. Even if Russia doesn’t want it, it can’t openly hinder Turkey.”

Azar Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, told Radio Liberty that the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey cannot accelerate the signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia: “It will not have a significant impact. Because the main external factor affecting the signing or non-signing of a peace agreement is the Russian factor. Without an external factor, the primary factor is the political will of both the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership.”

According to Gasimli, the Azerbaijani government talks with Russia and agrees on many points: “When making decisions, it also looks at Russia. As for Turkey, the improvement of relations with Armenia is in line with both Turkey’s own interests, as it can influence Armenia economically and politically, and Azerbaijan’s interests.”

In his words, Turkey is a natural ally of Azerbaijan: “The more influence Turkey has on Armenia, the better for Azerbaijan. Armenia’s exit from Russian influence and the strengthening of Turkish influence on Armenia is more in line with Azerbaijan’s national interests.”

Experts believe that such a rapprochement, if realized, will also be in Armenia's interests.