The Armenian army may disobey the terms of the agreement. What then?

Baku/12.11.20/Turan: The trilateral agreement on the peaceful solution of the Karabakh problem was signed on 10 November. It  provides for the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from the Kalbajar region (until November 15, 2020), the Agdam region and the territories of the Kazakh region (until November 20), and the Lachin region of Azerbaijan, excluding the five-kilometer transport lane between the region and Armenia (until December 1).

However, the events taking place in Armenia call into question the successful implementation of this plan. The Armenian population began to leave these regions during the days of the war that began on September 27, 2020. The last remaining residents are leaving the areas now. On November 10, the abbot of the Dadivan Monastery in Kelbajar, Hovhannes Hovhannesyan, was packing up property, utensils, looking for transport to take out the khachkars to leave Kelbajar, Sputnik-Armenia reported. Hovhannesyan fought, took part in the capture of Kelbajar in March-April 1993. Other Armenians are also leaving the region. Hovhannisyan says that the Armenian people are again on the path of resettlement: “this is the fate of the Armenians”.

In Yerevan, the radical political opposition is looking for an opportunity to disrupt the agreement signed by Pashinyan so that there is no surrender of territories to Azerbaijan. “There are 4 days left until the next item on the national disgrace schedule,” wrote analyst Karen Bekaryan. Every opportunity, even the smallest one, must be used to stop this process of failure." Bekaryan demands the voluntary resignation of Pashinyan and the leader of the Karabakh separatists Arayik Harutyunyan, which will enable Armenia to withdraw from the agreement signed with Pashinyan's participation and with the support of Harutyunyan.

In Yerevan, army units loyal to Pashinyan are preparing to storm the government building, which is occupied by insurgents who receive political support from about 20 Armenian parties. If the opposition manages to sweep away Pashinyan, the new government of Armenia may block the implementation of the schedule for the withdrawal of troops from three Azerbaijani regions.

The Azerbaijani Organization for the Liberation of Karabakh (KLO) is concerned with these events. In an interview with Turan, KLO chair Akif Nagi said that the Armenians could take advantage of the end of the war, regroup, rally and disrupt the implementation of the trilateral agreement.

What will happen if the new government in Armenia or the Karabakh Armenians refuse to withdraw the armed forces from Karabakh? Indeed, the signed agreement does not indicate the mechanisms of pressure on the side violating the terms of the agreement.

Armenians can use loopholes and inconsistencies in the text of the trilateral agreement. In particular, it turns out that there are two different versions of the text of the agreement published in the press. One does not mention the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from the territory of the Kazakh region of Azerbaijan.

Political observer Vugar Seyidov and leading expert of the North-South political science center, Researcher of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Karavaev (Moscow) answered the questions of Turan.

V. Seyidov sees no reason to break the agreement, since the next power in Armenia will be a pro-Russian one that will not oppose Putin's wishes. However, if Yerevan breaks the agreement, then Russia will approve the continuation of the military operation by the army of Azerbaijan. “But without our army entering Khankendi,” V. Seyidov specified.

According to A. Karavaev, for Moscow the implementation of the agreement on Karabakh is a matter of prestige, therefore, in cooperation with Azerbaijan, everything will be done to ensure that there are no disruptions. Azerbaijani and Russian security forces will closely interact.

“There are two important points. The withdrawal of regular troops will not be problematic since the army is subordinate to Yerevan, one of the providers of the peace treaty that saved the "NKR" from liquidation.

Now the Armenian volunteers, consisting of the local Armenian militias and the Armenians who arrived from abroad must be withdrawn. The foreigners will leave. There may be a problem of disarming local Armenians, who remained inside the perimeter guarded by the RF Armed Forces. This is the potential for different incidents. The only solution in this case is to carry out all contacts and movements of local Armenians through Russian military checkpoints. It is advisable to isolate completely contacts between the locals for a while, delivering food and goods to them under escort.

The admission of Armenian refugees to their places of residence should be carried out in cooperation with the Azerbaijani commandant's office, where representatives of the UN Refugee Commissariat will be. The first trips can be only familiarization with places of residence and for drawing up lists of documents and property of returning residents. The volume of work is quite large, said Alexander Karavaev.

What will happen if the Armenians put up armed resistance? At first, the recalcitrant will be surrounded; they will conduct a disarmament operation. Armed resistance from those who refuse to comply with the agreement will be extinguished by return fire. “There is no sentimentality here; Yerevan should have no doubts about this. If some Armenian unit does not fulfill the agreement, it will put itself outside the law and the Azerbaijani army can destroy them. But a rebellious military unit can remain inside the Karabakh zone, surrendering its weapons,” the expert added. –0—