What causes controversy in the Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan disclosed details of a proposed peace plan with Azerbaijan during discussions on the 2024 state budget at the National Assembly on October 30. The plan, as outlined by Pashinyan, consists of three fundamental principles aimed at regulating relations and achieving peace with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan explained the principles as follows: "The first principle is that Armenia and Azerbaijan must recognize each other's territorial integrity, taking into account the respective sizes of their territories. Armenia covers 29,800 square kilometers, while Azerbaijan encompasses 86,600 square kilometers."

The second principle, according to Pashinyan, involves the utilization of the Almaty Declaration from 1991 as the political foundation for delimiting and subsequently demarcating the state border.

Lastly, the third principle centers on the opening of all regional communications, guided by mutual respect for sovereignty, jurisdiction, and legislation. Pashinyan emphasized that adherence to these principles would pave the way for the signing of a peace agreement between the two nations.

Conversely, on the same day, Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov stated to AZERTAC that Azerbaijan is steadfast in its insistence on the signing of a peace treaty. He maintained that his country's proposals remain in force and indicated that Armenia should take further action. Mammadov noted that significant progress has been made, with most clauses of the peace agreement already agreed upon by both parties. He further asserted that signing a peace treaty after Azerbaijan has fully restored its sovereignty over Karabakh and its internationally recognized territories is the most practical and feasible approach.

However, Hikmat Babaoglu, a deputy from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP), expressed skepticism about Pashinyan's statement n an interview with Turan, deeming it incomplete and one-sided. Babaoglu argued that at least two of the three issues Pashinyan mentioned were not agreed upon with Azerbaijan. This includes the figures regarding borders, delimitation, demarcation, and territorial integrity, which Babaoglu argued were based on outdated references, such as the Soviet Encyclopedia of 1977. He also pointed out that the issue of opening communications is in question, referencing President Ilham Aliyev's recent order for the construction of a new road through Iran to Nakhchivan.

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli offered a nuanced perspective, suggesting that while there is general agreement on the three principles, disputes persist over the specifics, particularly concerning enclaves. In an interview with Radio Azadlig Mammadli opined that negotiating through neither the Russian nor Brussels format would be ideal, as both parties have their own geopolitical interests in the region that may conflict with Azerbaijan's. Instead, he proposed that Georgia might serve as a more suitable mediator.

Despite ongoing negotiations, Mammadli expressed doubts about the possibility of concluding a peace treaty by the end of the year. The delicate and complex nature of the issues at hand suggests that a comprehensive resolution remains elusive at this stage.