Who will live in Khankendi and when?

The Prime Minister of Armenia announced in the National Assembly of that country a program for the construction of residential buildings for Karabakh Armenians.  It is unlikely that this program will be extensive because Karabakh Armenians do not want to be citizens of Armenia.  This country needs tens of thousands of workers, and the problem of shortage of workers there is solved by issuing work permits to Indian citizens.  The government is interested in keeping the Karabakh people in Armenia. But people who have left Azerbaijan do not want Armenian citizenship.  In November 2023, the police of this country began accepting applications for Armenian citizenship from Karabakh refugees who received temporary protection status. In two months, only 735 people out of more than 100,000 Karabakh refugees applied for Armenian citizenship; more than 53 thousand immigrants who have chosen refugee status have received a certificate of temporary protection. Many Armenians, leaving Azerbaijan through the Lachin checkpoint, informed journalists that they intend to move to Russia.  So far, this is hampered by the ongoing war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

A committee "on collective repatriation and other fundamental rights of the people of Karabakh" has been established in Armenia, which will be headed by former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian.  Oskanian's candidacy suggests a purely political plan of the "committeemen", whose goal will be to consolidate anti-Azerbaijani actions in the world.  The leaders of the Karabakh Armenians made a deliberately unacceptable demand to Baku to grant them a status outside the laws of Azerbaijan, and to withdraw all law enforcement agencies from Karabakh. Then they will come back.

Baku also made an impossible demand in response. As President Ilham Aliyev stated, Armenians can return to Karabakh on the rights of Azerbaijani citizens, without granting them status, and with the political consent of Armenia to accept Azerbaijanis, former residents of the Armenian SSR.  This proposal is not even discussed in Yerevan.

So, the return of Armenians to Karabakh is not possible. Four months have passed since the last Armenian left the region (September 26, 2023).  All this time, the Azerbaijani police have been guarding empty houses in Karabakh, and it is impossible for Azerbaijani citizens to enter the region without a special permit. What will happen to the empty houses in which about 120 thousand people lived?  Khankendi alone accommodated about 55 thousand inhabitants. For comparison, 53 thousand people live in the city of Lankaran.

In this case, who will live in Khankendi, Agdere, Hadrut and other towns and villages of liberated Karabakh? It is believed that in the nineties, during pogroms 500 thousand Azerbaijanis fled from Nagorno-Karabakh and the lowlands. All their houses were totally destroyed by the Armenians, along with the existing infrastructure, economic, cultural, health and educational facilities.  Including the new generation of Karabakh people born during the occupation, the number of Azerbaijanis with roots from this region may reach one million. All of them cannot fit in the liberated territories. At the current pace of construction in this area, it is impossible to build new homes for all former refugees in the next five years. Therefore, it may be a question of selective settlement.

According to the head of the “Atlas” Analytical Center, Elkhan Shahinoglu, settling Azerbaijanis in empty Armenian houses is risky, since in this case Armenia will initiate thousands of lawsuits from Armenians to the International Court of Justice for violation of their property rights.   The courts will accept the parties of the plaintiffs, presenting the amounts of material compensation to Baku.

The expert suggests waiting another six months, giving Armenians time to think about accepting Azerbaijani citizenship.  In case of refusal after the expiration of the total one-year period (from the date of departure from Karabakh), Baku may, at the level of the law, declare the termination of property rights to real estate of former citizens of the AZSSR. President I. Aliyev stated that in 2024, the settlement of Khankendi and other settlements in the former Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijanis will begin.  In September 2024, one year will expire from the date of the departure of Armenians from Karabakh. Then empty houses and apartments will find new legitimate owners.