One step from friendship to rivalry. Gas disputes between Ashgabat and Moscow

China is strengthening its position in Central Asia’s energy sector, while Russian state-owned companies are losing ground, reflecting a deeper structural shift driven by capital availability, technology transfer and changing energy demand patterns.

Relations between Azerbaijan and China are entering a new phase in which economic interaction is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical calculations. In recent years, bilateral ties have evolved from pragmatic economic cooperation into a formalised comprehensive strategic partnership, reflecting Baku’s growing role in Eurasian logistics and Beijing’s expanding presence in the South Caucasus.

China used this year’s Boao Forum for Asia to present itself as a stabilising force in a fragmented global economy, even as analysts warned that deep structural weaknesses and geopolitical pressures could challenge that narrative.

When the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) convened its annual summit this year, two South Caucasus countries were noticeably absent from its inner circle. Azerbaijan and Armenia, both aspiring to at least observer status, faced obstacles not from Moscow or Beijing but from the regional rivalry between India and Pakistan.