Future Explosion Timer

Unfortunately, an annoying misunderstanding persists in the Armenian society of what really happened and why we got exactly such a result during the war. To understand this, one should go back to 1994, when Armenia won the first war with Azerbaijan.

As you know, then Armenia, having secured control over Nagorno-Karabakh itself, simultaneously seized 7 regions of Azerbaijan as a "security zone" and this is the key circumstance for understanding. The fact is that all today's events and today's result are the consequences of the seizure of these seven regions of Azerbaijan, and not the problem of Artsakh's independence.

In the beginning, we were honest with ourselves. We honestly admitted that the security zone, all these seven regions are temporarily occupied Azerbaijani lands, which are intended for future bargaining around the status of Artsakh. And it was quite understandable and logical then. But in 1994 we did not understand the most important thing - we did not understand that we have very little time for this bargaining. Why? Firstly, it was in the interests of Armenia and Artsakh to make bargaining as quickly as possible, at the very peak of military success, since this provided the maximum dividends for Artsakh. Moreover, Azerbaijan, represented by Heydar Aliyev, was ready for this. Secondly, we did not understand the extremely serious danger that the dragging out of the bargaining and the delay in the return of the territories turned Armenia into an occupying country that encroaches on the territorial integrity of a neighboring state. The world would unequivocally and under no circumstances agree with this, which we, in fact, have observed throughout all these last 25 years ...

As a result, we chose the worst possible path - the notorious option of maintaining the status quo, i.e. abandoned the final resolution of the issue and the signing of a peace treaty, while maintaining the occupation regime of Azerbaijani territories. It was a grandiose, tragic foreign policy mistake of Armenia.

We acted as if we were a regional military superpower controlling the region, although in reality we were a degrading economic midget in a geographic blockade. We did not understand that without immediately resolving the issue of converting the military victory into a peace treaty with Azerbaijan in 1994, we automatically turned on the countdown on the timer of the future explosion. So, it was then that we lost the current war. After all, our inadequacy is our everything.

It gets even worse. In the Armenian interpretation, the temporarily occupied territories of Azerbaijan very soon became "liberated" (I wonder from whom?). This cannot be interpreted otherwise than as defiant arrogance and insult to our neighbor, with whom we have to live forever. The world was perplexed by this catastrophic irresponsibility, but we continued to play absolutely adventurously with fire ... We were told about the occupied territories, and we were talking about self-determination, not even paying attention to the fact that our de facto status of an occupying country sharply devalued our own rhetoric on the issue of law nations for self-determination. Armenia has frankly failed to have a dialogue with the world community on Artsakh ... But our inadequacy is our everything.

A few simple questions. What has Azerbaijan been doing all these 25 years? Preparing for a military revenge. With whom? Obviously, with fraternal Turkey. What is the Turkish army? It is the second most powerful NATO army with virtually unlimited military resources. Did we know about this? Of course. Azerbaijan has imposed an arms race on us and has repeatedly warned us - either resolve the issue or war. What did our foreign policy do in the face of the emerging powerful Turkish-Azerbaijani military alliance? She slept serenely, having lost even the elementary instinct of self-preservation. Meanwhile, the clock on the timer continued to tick. So what were we hoping for in the conditions when it was said a hundred times that the CSTO does not apply to Karabakh? Apparently, on the Almighty. I have no other answer. After all, our inadequacy is our everything.

The timer went off on September 27, 2020. The time bomb exploded with a deafening crash. Artsakh found itself in the face of the 90-million Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance super-prepared for war - in the absence of any official military ally. It is quite obvious that despite the heroic resistance of the defense army, defeat was inevitable.

So who is to blame for what happened? In light of the above, the answer is obvious. The guilt is those of our leaders who at one time did not agree with Heydar Aliyev on a peace treaty due to their provincial folly. The culprit are those village princelings who then followed the path of a catastrophic scenario of maintaining the status quo of the occupied territories and who arrogantly allowed themselves a cynical imitation of the negotiation process throughout these 25 years. All the Armenian political parties, the expert community and the media of Armenia are to blame, which for 25 years poisoned the people with the pseudo-patriotic slogan "not an inch of land to the enemy." Just think about the essence of this slogan - not an inch of Azerbaijani land to Azerbaijan? This is absolute insanity. But our inadequacy is our everything ...

Now let's return to Nikol Pashinyan's responsibility for the military defeat. Was it even there? Of course not - a crushing defeat would have been guaranteed under any current government. There is nothing to discuss and speculate here. Therefore, the question is completely different - could the current government prevent this war, prevent the military phase?

My answer is yes, it could, but only in theory. Why purely in theory?

 In theory, immediately after coming to power, Pashinyan was obliged to immediately announce a change in foreign policy. He was obliged to clearly and unequivocally declare the unacceptability for Armenia of the criminal status quo policy pursued by the previous authorities and the transition to meaningful, non-imitative negotiations on a real settlement of the conflict in the spirit of good neighborliness. Only this could stop the ticking timer. As a hypothetical option, we could immediately declare our readiness to return all 7 occupied regions in exchange for something. Yes, we could simply return these areas as a gesture of goodwill, subject to certain conditions. Yes, there were a lot of options. The main thing here is the desire to really come to an agreement, which Armenia has not yet had - taking into account the catastrophic military scenario that was already elementary calculated. Can you imagine how Armenia's foreign policy authority would have skyrocketed and what impetus the process of recognizing the independence of Artsakh would have received in this case? But the main thing is that the explosion timer would stop.

But all this is theoretical. Could Pashinyan have said this practically? Alas, I think not. For the simple but terrible reason that Pashinyan received power from the people, totally poisoned by the poison of the slogan "not an inch of land to the enemy." Mass accusations of betrayal, land sales and whatever. - the very minimum that he would immediately receive in response. As a result, Pashinyan could not get out of this political trap, which he received as a difficult inheritance. And the timer couldn't work forever. Therefore, we have to admit that we were historically doomed to this explosion and inevitable military defeat, no matter who says anything now. This is the price for catastrophic mistakes in foreign policy and for ignoring the elementary principles of "real politics".

What's next? Yes, the current government got the full burden of moral and psychological responsibility for the military defeat that fell on the period of its rule. But this is her cross, which she will have to bear. She will have to bear this cross, despite all the charges. There is simply no other way out. Now Pashinyan's government needs to quickly earn new legitimacy, but this time on the basis of the effectiveness of decisions. It is necessary to act tough, quickly, in an extremely pragmatic authoritarian style, without playing false democracy. Armenia has no other choice now.

On the role of Russia in this war. In fact, it is exceptional. It was not about stopping this war. No country in the world could stop this war - Azerbaijan de-occupied its lands, this was recognized by the entire international community, including Russia itself. Nevertheless, Russia had a special role, which, I believe, from the outset, it was fully aware. Yes, Russia could not stop the war, but it could stop the slaughter. And the fact that things were heading for slaughter with the existing alignment of forces, from the very first day, did not raise any doubts. You don't have to be an expert here in the existing balance of power. And as soon as that moment came, Russia made this decision with lightning speed and saved thousands of lives. This was its unique mission, for which we should be extremely grateful to Russia. No other country could have made such a decision and would not have been able to implement it in such a short time frame. The count went on for days and hours ...

As for the role of the collective West, we must finally understand that the West is not capable of solving such conflicts in principle, it is only capable of chatting them up. The only thing we can count on is the delivery of humanitarian aid, which is also not particularly visible. But we will be grateful - if we receive this help. 

In the end, I would like to emphasize the following. Despite the tragedy that has happened, I believe that a completely new economic reality will soon emerge on the territory of the South Caucasus. It will be interesting because Armenia will receive the maximum benefits from this reality, since it is for Armenia that absolutely new windows of opportunity will be created, which we now do not even suspect and which until now were simply impossible. Soon everyone will feel it.
Arminfo