Analytics ... 2004 August 05 ( Thursday )  

Analytics

05 August, 2004 (16:14:45 / GMT+04:00)

 

 

 

 

To readers,

The latest events in the country and in the region, unclearness of the situation and deepening of the crisis in the question of settlement of the conflicts urge me, as a citizen, to publish my vision of the perspectives of development of the country in the regional and in the European contexts. The article contains the conclusions which I made dealing for 15 years in information activity.

Mehman Aliyev,

Director Turan News Agency

 

Numerous attempts and initiatives of the international organizations and of the countries for solution of the conflicts in the South Caucasus and establishment of stability has been taken from the moment of destruction of the USSR. But over 14 years none of the conflicts has been settled. The only positive result of the mediators became stop of military actions in the conflict zones. It happened 10 years ago. And since then there is not any progress in the question of settling of the conflicts. Of course, the countries of the region received the opportunity to deal in state building, develop integration into the world community, but under the condition of existing of "frozen conflicts" they could not achieve any success neither in economics nor in the building of civil society.

 

The reasons of non-resolution of the conflicts

For more than 10s year all participants to the process of regulation, both local and foreign were dealing in resolution of some problems in the economy and in the politics. For example , in the question of resolution of the most actual problems - the regional conflicts, the approaches of the countries were contradictory, inconsequent and tried to eliminate the problems separately from the common-Caucasian context. So, the Abkhazian conflict is being solved within the frameworks of the UNO, the Karabakh conflict- within the frameworks of the Minsk group, the Osetin - with mediation of Russia. In all cases, certain condition for the solution of the conflict and establishment of good neighbor relations is satisfaction of their own approaches and interests: the right of nations for self-determination and territorial integrity.

Just disability of the mediators and the sides to the conflict to provide coincidence of these two interests brings the process into deadlock. Everything may change if the sides solve these problems in the context of the Caucasian integration and creation of the Caucasian union.

 

Preconditions for settling the conflict

There are all preconditions for the solution of the conflicts through the Caucasian integration. The most important argument for this is the statements of the participants of the conflicts to establish good-neighboring relations after concession of the opposite side and settlement of the conflicts.

None of the sides stated about antagonism and refusal from cooperation with the other side. On the contrary, all sides state about readiness to cooperation after satisfaction of their conflict interests. The other precondition is common space , under which we understand the geographic area, mutually dependent long history. All people of the region have been under constant pressing and all together entered some state formations, beginning from the Rome empire up to the Soviet empire.

They have similar Caucasian culture, traditions, mentality which are so strong that push back their religious and political orientations. And at last, common perspective of the people of the region.

They all declare devotion to the European values and try to integrate into European space. And they made real steps in this direction: they became the members of the CE, of the program PRM and of the other European programs, carry out integration political and economic reforms.

 

Ways of resolution

The basis for the future development of the country must be complex approach. Resolution of the problems without complex approach will not bring to long-term stability and dynamic break of the countries and peoples of the region in all spheres. It is necessary to start with creation of the legal basis of the future Caucasian union. For example, the Agreement of the Caucasian House and single space: political, economic, cultural and military. It must be broad document and should contain the program and plan with concrete terms, providing the whole process: from the situation status-qvo (recognition of territorial integrity of states and existing realities) up to creation of a single Caucasian space and its joining the European union, as the guarantor of stability in our region. The legal basis should be created by all sides with participation of international mediators- the guarantors of implementation of the adopted decisions.

In the basis of super-state and interdepartmental institutions should be taken the European structures: Eurounion, CE, Europarliament, the Cabinet of Ministers NATO and so on. It is necessary to provide withdrawal of the foreign troops from Caucasus, except the forces supporting peace during transition period.

The European experience of construction of a Single Europe should be taken into account as the main instrument of the building of Caucasian House. The European structures have long-experience of the state building accompanied by wars, and change of borders. Last century there were two world wars in Europe which ended with lost of ten millions of lives. But despite hard history, and sometimes, hostility lasting for many centuries, the Europeans were strong enough to build the European house, as the only guarantor of stability and development. In this construction Europe started from status-qvo and step by step solved the problems: came to unanimity. We should not waste time to creation of bicycle. Turning to the European experience Caucasus can pass the way of construction of the Caucasian house within short period of time. Creation of the Caucasian region will simplify adaptation of the region to the European union. Building of the Caucasian House in the South Caucasus with further attraction of the Northern Caucasus, of course, will provide stability in the south of Russia. Within the frameworks of the project the Caucasian house territorial belonging, isolation of ethnic groups fully loose their sense, because their rights and interests will be provided in the Caucasian parliament, government, court and so on, wherever they are represented. A single Caucasian space can and must become the guarantor of safety, development and welfare of all ethnic groups, regardless the place of their location and the number. In this context, Azerbaijan has necessary resource potential to become the locomotive of this process. Moreover, it must lead this movement.

 

 

 

 

 

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