Azerbaijan - France: troubled searching for cooperation basics

Since the World War II France has always pursued an independent policy in the Western commonwealth, up to the withdrawal from NATO and the construction of special relations with the USSR during the time of Charles de Gaulle. After getting some sensitive blows from the Anglo-Saxon alliance, President Macron, on the eve of the next elections (10-24.04), defined goals of the French Presidency of the EU as "a transition to a strong, sovereign Europe in the world, free to make its own choices and own its own destiny". These ambitious plans to arise from the U.S. shadow imply a much more active foreign policy aimed at attracting new allies.

To all probability, this is what Macron intends to do in the remaining time before the French Presidential election and the completion of the EU Presidency.

It should be remembered that the motto of his Presidency has been chosen in line with these plans: "Recovery" (a post-equivalent EU plan for developing the economy at a cost of €800 billion); "Strength" (a strong sovereign Europe which is the master of its own destiny); "Identity" (shared European values based on common cultural and political space governed by the principles of liberal democracy). On the last point of the motto, the Polish-Hungarian tandem, which is often joined by other EU members fearful of excessive liberalism, spoils the picture somewhat. The Presidency's agenda is very broad, but we are naturally interested in the "French" interpretation of EU policy in the South Caucasus (SC).

According to Ambassador Zachary Gross, France and the EU as a whole take a direct interest in maintaining peace in this region, as well as the independence and prosperity of its three countries. Note that modern independent and sovereign Azerbaijan is in the framework of EU interests. The meetings of President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan with Presidents Michel and Macron in Brussels were historic milestones. It is no mere coincidence that Azerbaijan and Armenia can move from a post-conflict situation to peace talks in 2022.

In so doing, the EU wants to assist the three SC countries in their transformation. The European Commission has announced a more than €2 billion budget package for cooperation in the region, in low-carbon energy, connectivity including digital connectivity, smart cities and villages, sustainable development, media support and rural development. The level of funding for the partnership with Azerbaijan will depend on the number and characteristics of the projects proposed by Azerbaijan. The figures discussed in the media (that wrote about the obvious discrimination of Azerbaijan - A. Ab) are based on the projects so far submitted by Azerbaijan. That is, the EU is not to blame for the distribution of support funds.

There is a further point to be made here is that since the beginning of the year the French Ambassador made several statements on the upcoming cooperation between Paris and Baku, including the restoration of the liberated territories of Azerbaijan - Karabakh and East Zangezur; the demining process; the identification of missing persons in the first Karabakh war, as well as the regional development, in particular in Agdam, where France offers its expertise and financing for repair of water and energy networks; the cooperation in education and culture, including in the framework of the Azerbaijani-French University. Worthy of note is the fact that the diplomat keeps repeating that "cooperation can and must be carried out in increasingly sovereign Europe and the Republic of Azerbaijan to confront major international challenges.

All things considered, the French Ambassador stressed that Azerbaijan has restored its economy which had fallen into decay after the collapse of the USSR, and now has the resources to build a more inclusive and democratic society: "Azerbaijan has the potential, through the implementation of the initiative to sign a peace treaty with Armenia, to join efforts to combat climate change and coronavirus, to become a guarantor of regional and international security by protecting biodiversity, promoting women's rights".

The fact that the French Development Agency expects to double investments up to €600 million to promote projects in energy, transport, water supply, creation of "smart cities" in Azerbaijan, and has already allocated €280 million to CJSC Azerbaijani Railways CJSC for the development of railroads, improvement of society management system. Ambassador Z. Gross suggests continuing the France-Azerbaijan and European Union-Azerbaijan partnership and making 2022 a year of revival of peace and unity in the South Caucasus.

Here it is worth citing that the scandal connected with the illegal visit of French Presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse to Karabakh at the end of December 2021 accompanied by the former European commissioner and French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier continued. Azerbaijan's sharp protest and the position of President Ilham Aliyev provoked a strong reaction from France, becoming a topic of discussion in the French National Assembly. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called President Aliyev's words "unacceptable in form and in substance. In turn (19.01), Azerbaijan accused the French Foreign Minister of violating diplomatic etiquette. "The irresponsible and made in an unacceptable form comment of the French Minister on the statement of the head of another state violates diplomatic traditions. We must state with regret that the Foreign Minister of France, a country with great traditions of statehood, does not understand that."

All things considered, the head of Milli Majlis working group on Azerbaijani-French inter-parliamentary relations Soltan Mammadov (09.01) noted that Le Drian's statement undermines the initiatives on restoration of trust between the two countries and causes doubts about sincerity of official Paris in establishing peace and security in South Caucasus.

Recently (21.01), President Ilham Aliyev received Isabelle Dumont, advisor to the French Presidential Administration, and Toivo Klaar, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus. Time will tell whether this visit ended the incident or not; however, the fact that many challenges and risks await Azerbaijani-French relations can hardly be questioned. In the race for the presidency Valerie Pecresse, a candidate of the Republican Party with extremely conservative views, is considered to be one of the favorites. Her Presidential program focuses on restricting migration and strengthening the rule of law. But even without this, the forthcoming elections will determine the vector of the political development of France, which is experiencing the deepest ideological crisis: the loss of confidence in the leftist forces represented by the Socialists, the large-scale growth of right-wing sentiments among both the Republicans and supporters of Marine Le Pen, and in the camp of the non-system opposition, professing the ultra-right views. The electoral preferences of the population are fragmented in accordance with this political diversity. According to the latest opinion polls, none of the left-wing candidates has a chance to pass to the second round of elections; about 24-25% of the French are ready to vote for E. Macron. This is more than the other contenders, but not enough to win in the first round.

It is worth remembering that Eric Zemmour (nicknamed "French Trump"), as described by the British BBC, notorious as a publicist and provocateur, fighting feminists, migrants and Muslims, demanding the banning of foreign names and even justifying the Vichy regime which collaborated with the Nazis, has already been twice convicted for provocative remarks against Muslims, Arabs and black French people. With this "track record", between 13% and 17% of the French are ready to support him. The total number of Zemmour and Marine Le Pen supporters may be more than 30% of voters.

 Added to this can be that a recent poll showed that 61% of the French believe that a "great substitution" - a plot to replace the white and Christian population of the West with dark-skinned Muslim migrants from Africa and Asia - is taking place in their country. Under these circumstances, Macron has significantly improved, taking tough stances on migration and identity issues. His proposed measures lead to greater state control over mosques and their funding. In parallel, Macron saw the American ideas of multiculturalism and the fight against racism as a threat to France. When protests under the slogan "Black Lives Matter" reached Paris, he argued for patriotism based on French universal values. But do contemporary French people hold to these values?

It has to be kept in mind that the Opinion Way polls of January answered this question in part: Macron polls just 26%, Marine Le Pen ("Rassemblement Nationale") and V. Pécrès ("Republicans") at 16% each, Eric Zemmour (Reconquista party) at 13%. The other candidates - Jean-Luc Melanchon ("France Unconquered"), Yannick Jadot ("Green Party") and Ann Hidalgo (mayor of Paris, Socialist Party) - gain 9%, 7% and 4% respectively. The other politicians are less than 3%. France's right wing, together with the Republicans, can collect up to 45% of the vote, so the main threat to Macron in the upcoming elections comes from the right. Perhaps, that's why Macron is in no hurry to run for President, believing that the Presidency of the EU will allow him to strengthen his image both in the world (which he is trying to change) and in his own country (which he wants to govern next). Angela Merkel's departure from the political arena has freed up a vacancy as leader of a united Europe, but today the claim to the post must be backed by an individual who surpasses the talents of the former chancellor.

When it comes to the main topic of the article, we can assume that for a long time, if not all of 2022, not only the Azerbaijani-French, but also the relationship between the EU and Azerbaijan will seek and, perhaps, change the orientation of their cooperation.

Ali Abasov