Difficult European Integration

Speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament Ogtay Asadov surprised diplomats noting the exact date of signing - May 13. A statement by Asadov, made within the walls of parliament, produced the amendments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which announced unlikely to be signed in May, and the EU representation. The comment of the latter was less categorical - negotiations are at the stage of development. Although both sides stated that, the processes came to the finish line with a 10 percent load of unresolved issues.

The main uncoordinated issues over which negotiators on both sides now break are some elements of the trade aspects, as well as the issue of the Karabakh settlement. At least, this is a private conversation of people dedicated to the negotiation process. The Azerbaijani side insists on the inclusion in the agreement of a clause on the mandatory restoration of territorial integrity, as it was included in the EU agreements with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. In principle, Baku is right; pointing out the EU to double standards, but the realization of the wishes of the Azerbaijani side in the framework of the negotiation process makes it difficult for the situation to be a little scrupulous. In the case of these countries, an encroachment on territorial integrity is Russia, which is not a participant in the European integration process within the Eastern Partnership and is opposed to this project. In the case of Azerbaijan and Armenia, both countries are equal partners for the EU, and all even Yerevan is ahead of Baku on the path to European integration, having signed a strategic agreement last year. In the specific case, the EU strategy is designed to reconcile the parties within a single European format, including principles, values ​​and obligations.

In principle, the European Union, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan, could have entered earlier into a more favorable environment within which a peaceful triangle could be built if the two South Caucasus countries were more active in the process of European integration. In many ways, the problem of conflict and unresolved issues in the field of trade, human rights, democracy have become the derivatives of the erroneous "closed door" policy.

The countries of the South Caucasus signed cooperation agreements with the EU in 1996. The agreements were revolutionary in terms of the post-Soviet nature of the Caucasian regimes. In addition, as subsequent events and stages of rapprochement between the South Caucasus (South Caucasus) and the EU showed, the Soviet mentality of the ruling elites became the main brake on the rapprochement rate proposed by the European Union. Widespread violations of the principles of democracy, rights and freedoms, and corruption came into conflict with the ideas and obligations dictated by the basic agreement with the EU of the mid-90s.

The reference to countering the process of integration of the LC into the EU by Russia cannot be discounted, but they cannot be an excuse for blocking the process of transforming post-Soviet countries from authoritarianism into democracy. Perhaps the authoritarian state today is the main obstacle to European integration.

If to look at the stages of the development of EU relations with the post-Soviet countries, it can be seen that the EU has always sought to accelerate rapprochement. From the 1996 agreement to the Neighborhood Program, it took 8 years, from Neighborhood to the Eastern Partnership 5 years, from the Eastern Partnership to the Strategic Partnership Agreement with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine - 5 years (where Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus act as a deterrent). The activation of the latter in the European direction has become possible largely due to the systemic crisis that has engulfed these countries. The crises of the system have shown the fallacy of dismantling the post-Soviet republics from the European home. Today's hasty actions can be viewed as a logical reaction arising from hopelessness. However, the actions of official Baku regarding aspects of domestic politics show that psychologically, the authorities are not ready to spread the values ​​and fulfill the obligations of the agreement 22 years ago. This aspect continues to be the main obstacle to the transformation of Azerbaijan into democracy and, accordingly, the resolution of problems in the field of rights and freedoms, corruption, and of course the Karabakh conflict.

In 2004, the Turan analytical service published the article "The European Model as the Basis for the Formation of a Common Caucasian Space", which caused a wide public response. It was supplemented in a short time. The article indicated erroneous approaches regarding European integration and the Karabakh conflict 14 years after the collapse of the USSR. Another 14 years later, assessing the way covered by the country, we can state that we were right. But the worst thing would be to erroneously continue to follow the false guidelines. The time limit for the next 14 years has been exhausted.

EUROPEAN MODEL AS THE BASIS OF FORMATION OF SINGLE CAUCASIAN SPACE

Numerous attempts and initiatives of the international organizations and of the countries for solution of the conflicts in the South Caucasus and establishment of stability has been taken from the moment of destruction of the USSR. However, over 14 years none of the conflicts has been settled. The only positive result of the mediators became stop of military actions in the conflict zones. It happened 10 years ago. In addition, since then there is not any progress in the question of settling of the conflicts. Of course, the countries of the region received the opportunity to deal in state building, develop integration into the world community, but under the condition of existing of "frozen conflicts", they could not achieve any success neither in economics nor in the building of civil society.

The reasons of non-resolution of the conflicts

For more than 10s year all participants to the process of regulation, both local and foreign were dealing in resolution of some problems in the economy and in the politics. For example, in the question of resolution of the most actual problems - the regional conflicts, the approaches of the countries were contradictory, inconsequent and tried to eliminate the problems separately from the common-Caucasian context. So, the Abkhazian conflict is being solved within the frameworks of the UNO, the Karabakh conflict- within the frameworks of the Minsk group, the Osetin - with mediation of Russia. In all cases, certain condition for the solution of the conflict and establishment of good neighbor relations is satisfaction of their own approaches and interests: the right of nations for self-determination and territorial integrity.

Just disability of the mediators and the sides to the conflict to provide coincidence of these two interests brings the process into deadlock. Everything may change if the sides solve these problems in the context of the Caucasian integration and creation of the Caucasian union.

Preconditions for settling the conflict

There are all preconditions for the solution of the conflicts through the Caucasian integration. The most important argument for this is the statements of the participants of the conflicts to establish good-neighboring relations after concession of the opposite side and settlement of the conflicts.

None of the sides stated about antagonism and refusal from cooperation with the other side. On the contrary, all sides state about readiness to cooperation after satisfaction of their conflict interests. The other precondition is common space, under which we understand the geographic area, mutually dependent long history. All people of the region have been under constant pressing and all together entered some state formations, beginning from the Rome Empire up to the Soviet empire.

They have similar Caucasian culture, traditions, mentality that are so strong that push back their religious and political orientations. At last, common perspective of the people of the region.

They all declare devotion to the European values and try to integrate into European space. In addition, they made real steps in this direction: they became the members of the CE, of the PRM program, and of the other European programs, carry out integration political and economic reforms.

Ways of resolution

The basis for the future development of the country must be complex approach. Resolution of the problems without complex approach will not bring to long-term stability and dynamic break of the countries and peoples of the region in all spheres. It is necessary to start with creation of the legal basis of the future Caucasian union. For example, the Agreement of the Caucasian House and single space: political, economic, cultural and military. It must be broad document and should contain the program and plan with concrete terms, providing the whole process: from the situation status-qvo (recognition of territorial integrity of states and existing realities) up to creation of a single Caucasian space and its joining the European Union, as the guarantor of stability in our region. The legal basis should be created by all sides with participation of international mediators- the guarantors of implementation of the adopted decisions.

In the basis of super-state and interdepartmental institutions should be taken the European structures: European Union, CE, European Parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers NATO and so on. It is necessary to provide withdrawal of the foreign troops from Caucasus, except the forces supporting peace during transition period.

The European experience of construction of a Single Europe should be taken into account as the main instrument of the building of Caucasian House. The European structures have long-experience of the state building accompanied by wars, and change of borders. Last century there were two world wars in Europe, which ended with loss of ten millions of lives. However, despite hard history, and sometimes, hostility lasting for many centuries, the Europeans were strong enough to build the European house, as the only guarantor of stability and development. In this construction, Europe started from status-qvo and gradually solved the problems: came to unanimity. We should not waste time to creation of bicycle. Turning to the European experience Caucasus can pass the way of construction of the Caucasian house within short period. Creation of the Caucasian region will simplify adaptation of the region to the European Union. Building of the Caucasian House in the South Caucasus with further attraction of the Northern Caucasus, of course, will provide stability in the south of Russia. Within the frameworks of the project the Caucasian house territorial belonging, isolation of ethnic groups fully lose their sense, because their rights and interests will be provided in the Caucasian parliament, government, court and so on, wherever they are represented. A single Caucasian space can and must become the guarantor of safety, development and welfare of all ethnic groups, regardless the place of their location and the number. In this context, Azerbaijan has necessary resource potential to become the locomotive of this process.

In addition to the above historical, geographical, ethnographic, cultural prerequisites, it is necessary to note other aspects that speak in favor of speeding up the process of integration of the South Caucasian countries.

1. The democratic aspect. In these countries, which are more or less controlled by authoritarian methods, a framework of a democratic system and civil society is being created. There is a legal basis for a democratic state, political parties, non-governmental media, and NGOs.

2. Geopolitical aspect. The countries of the South Caucasus are members of the OSCE, the Council of Europe, the Partnership for Peace program, TRACECA, the New Neighborhood program, which are drawing the country into the orbit of the European development system.

3. The economic aspect. Azerbaijan has significant energy resources, is central to the intersection of communications West-East and North-South. This allows the countries of the region to implement the project relying on internal energy resources and to protect themselves from external factors, as it used to be throughout the entire period of independence, and in particular, in connection with the latest events around energy supplies to Ukraine and Georgia.

4. Regional aspect. The EU clearly sees the accession of the South Caucasian countries to the EU as a single region, and not individually.

Under the current unstable political and energy situation in the regions adjacent to the South Caucasus ( such as Russia, Iran, Iraq), the slow pace of the socio-economic development of the South Caucasus, their formation as legal states, and unresolved conflicts, the peoples of the region should actively speed up the democratization process and regional integration. They should reduce the time from 20 to 10 years to join the EU. This tactic was announced by Georgia.

What does prevent us?

1. The contradiction between the process of globalization, in which developed countries are actively involved, and the process of building national states in which Azerbaijan and two other countries of the South Caucasus are engaged. What is the contradiction? The EU countries first developed as sovereign states and only then gradually and progressively began to abandon their sovereigns in favor of the Union: unified legislation, unified military command, common currency, open borders, free movement of goods and labor, a single Constitution. In our case, the countries of the South Caucasus, on the one hand, are on the path of building sovereign states, and on the other hand, they are forced to simultaneously adapt to the requirements of globalization, give up sovereignty. Judging by how our authorities act, we can assume that they are primarily absorbed in the establishment of sovereignty, and only then are they going to respond to global challenges. In this case, we run the risk of falling further behind the global processes and European integration. We have no time. It is enough to pay attention to how rapidly the world of information technology has changed in 15 years. The device of world order is changing in the same way. We must actively engage in the process of globalization and learn how to ensure our interests (political, economic, and informational) beyond the borders of our state borders, as countries that are in the vanguard of globalization do today.

2. Closed economy. One of the main obstacles to the development of the state is a closed economy. It is known that the Azerbaijani economy has not yet got rid of closeness, which slows down the pace of our development and does not allow for rapid progress, as we deserve the resource potential. World experience shows that only countries with an open economy can develop dynamically. Many examples can be cited, but I will focus on one that characterizes the three stages of EU development. Germany embarked on an open market policy and the active involvement of foreign capital after the war, Poland after the collapse of the socialist camp, Estonia after the collapse of the USSR. All these countries have achieved tremendous success. Under the concept of an open market, you must keep in mind the investments of finance, technology, management, business culture.

Under closed economy, we have to wait for decades how our new bourgeois to learn to manage the economy and conduct business at the level of world standards. Fourteen years have passed since the collapse of the USSR and we see the results of this policy: there is practically no foreign investment, technology, non-oil experience, about half of the population lives below the poverty line, monopolies, corruption is being stifled and decaying society. We have one of the funniest budgets in the world. In the expenditure, part of the budget for 2006, only $ 470 per capita. Excluding oil income is two times less. In Estonia, which does not have such raw materials as ours, the expense part of the budget provides for $ 3,500 per person per capita a year. I have often heard such an opinion that it is necessary to limit the access of foreigners to the economy and control it themselves, based on the so-called national interests. However, excuse me, we have already given a strategic one - the oil sphere to foreigners, and now what are we protecting from them? (By national interests, I personally understand the rule of law, the freedom of the individual in any field of activity, the high level of income of the population, a high degree of democracy and equal rights for all, freedom of speech). As our practice has shown, a closed system has failed to ensure the supremacy of these priorities. On the contrary, the further continuation of such a policy creates real threats to national security. I believe that the government should open the doors and create all conditions for the activities of advanced high-tech countries in the EU, Japan and the USA in Azerbaijan, which will dramatically accelerate our development and accession to the EU.

3. Authoritarian system. The main problem on the path of the earliest possible accession of Azerbaijan to the EU remains the authoritarian system that exists in our country. In the absence of democracy, when elections are falsified, economic and political freedoms of citizens are suppressed, the media are controlled, the judicial system does not work properly, and there is no need to talk about progress. Representatives of some Western countries, the so-called Democrats - friends of our authorities, are trying to convince us that we must first develop the economy, and then begin to develop democracy. However, we do not know in Europe any experience where economic development was a priority in relation to democracy.

World experience suggests otherwise. Only democracy can ensure the full and accelerated development of society. The path to democracy is the legitimate election of the executive and legislative authorities, self-government bodies. Legitimate elections will allow the people to elect the authorities endowed with their will, trust, the power controlled by the people. Only such a society will be able to develop dynamically and be able to repeat the experience of successful development of such countries as Germany, Poland and Estonia.

So, summarizing the abovementioned, I come to the conclusion that the formation of South Caucasian Corridor and its accession to the EU, dominated by democratic principles in politics and economics, where there is a solid system of collective security, create tremendous conditions and opportunities for reforming the region into one of the most developed and stable in the world.