Early parliamentary elections. Expectations and results

The extraordinary parliamentary elections can be considered mostly completed. In 121 out of 125 constituencies across the country, the results attained by the members of the Milli Majlis (MM) are published on the official website of the CEC. The results of only 4 constituencies were canceled. In addition, complaints on 10 constituencies are being investigated by the ConECs. Regardless of the outcome of the complaints, the MM has quorum. It is now possible to analyze the overall results.

First, let us clarify why early parliamentary elections were decided to hold? What was the purpose here? What were the internal and external factors that required the dissolution of the MM and the conduct of new elections?

On December 2, 2019, at the initiative of the ruling party, the NAP, the MM made an appeal to President Ilham Aliyev for the dissolution of the MM. The appeal said that the decision was made to support the president’s course of reforms and personnel reforms.

“There is a need for the MM to improve its activities, to increase its efficiency, to renew, to adapt to the strategy of dynamic development and comprehensive reform in order to further accelerate the structural and human resources in all spheres of state and public life, to cover all the branches of state power.”

It was no secret that the current parliament’s role in the country's social and political relations was very low. Since the MM was not a body that created and regulated the domestic system of legal, social, economic, political, social relations, it did not matter how long or how it functioned. On the other hand, MM passed all draft laws coming from the Presidential Administration immediately and without deliberation. Consequently, it would not be reasonable to consider the official arguments of the authorities regarding early elections.

In fact, the analysis of the social and political situation in the country required the early democratic parliamentary elections. The rule of law and the superiority of law in the country are neglected. There is no transparency, accountability, civic engagement, public control, a reliable guarantee of rights and property. The country’s international image has been greatly damaged.

At the same time, parliament has become an additional burden not only politically for the community, but also for the government itself. With very few exceptions, the majority of MPs did not understand their legal and moral responsibility to the community. Their actions and discourses have deepened the discontent in society and have created additional problems for the authorities. Deputies’ illegal business activities, their transformation into privileged persons representing the interests of oligarchs, regional clans, and foreign influence groups have always been on the press agenda.

An analysis of the results of early elections shows that the purpose of the new elections is neither adequate to the official arguments of the government nor to the real social and political situation in society. 78 deputies who resigned because they were unable to keep up with the President’s reforms were re-mandated by the mobilization of administrative resources.

Who conducted the election? New appointments to executive structures or old personnel?

On December 5, the head of state signed an order to dissolve the fifth convocation of the MM and to call early elections. 54 days before the start of early elections, the head of the presidential administration and several other officials were removed from the post on October 23. In fact, Ramiz Mehdiyev, who has been responsible for the conduct of all elections since 1995, was officially removed from the organization of early parliamentary elections.

Those who were promoted to senior positions in the presidential administration were mostly young and not generally known by the general public. The majority of these people are more likely to be described as the team of the First Vice President since their careers are related to the Heydar Aliyev Foundation. Generally, the absolute majority of people who have been promoted to senior positions after the 2016 referendum are regarded in society as Mehriban Aliyeva’s team. As if a new alternative team is being formed within the government. In all reason, this new team has the February 9 elections held.

How was the election? How did it differ from previous elections?

Traditional early election was held with its all parameters. In neither the pre-election environment nor the campaign phase nor the election day, we saw any positive changes. Even after the election, candidates who were dissatisfied with the results and complained were not given the opportunity to protest. In front of the CEC, there happened police harassment and illegal detention against candidates.

The pre-election environment made the conduct of democratic elections impossible. All instances of election commissions were completely controlled by the authorities. We can note the presence of 130 political prisoners in the country, the lack of freedom of assembly, and the lack of freedom of the press and expression.

There were also severe restrictions on the campaign phase. Compared with the situation in 2010, the opportunities have been restricted by almost 18 times in 2020. While the number of open and closed places for candidates to meet with voters in 2010 was 4,930, this number was 272 in 2020. Given that there are 4,500 villages and settlements in the country, 272 meeting places for candidates across the country indicate the scale of the restrictions. While 80 percent of voters from the Agdam District Constituency No.118 live in Baku, a meeting place was allocated in Barda district, 330 km away from Baku, for candidates to meet with voters. Conducting hasty elections in the coldest winter of February was also indirectly intended to impede voters and candidates.

The free campaign of candidates on public television and state television was not permitted. The paid airtime set by the ITV for the candidates was a fantastic price in the realities of the country. The price set for candidates during “prime time” was 4,602 AZN per 1 minute. Election reports of the Institute for Democratic Initiatives (IDI) show that the 100% of the broadcasts have served the government.

Traditional total violations were also observed on election day. From the opening of polling stations to the end of voting, as well as from the vote counting to protocoling, there occurred severe violations at all stages.

Who are the new deputies and for what qualities were they brought to the MM?

The government did not want to bring widespread dissatisfaction in society to the parliament through opposition and independent candidates. Cosmetic changes were made to the parliament. The course of conducting political and social discussions outside the parliament continued. Although 43 new people were brought to the MM, 78 were the previous ones.

It is very difficult to determine due to which political and ideological parameters the new composition was brought to the parliament. Specifically, the public has general information about only 9 of the 43 new persons who received the mandate. As a result of a search of Internet resources, there is not any social and political information about 32 new deputies. Most of the new persons, who were brought to the legislative body, did not participate in the discussion of social and political problems of society. Based on the arguments made on social networks, most of the newly elected members are members of the team of the First Vice President.

How is the result? What can happen?

Almost two months ago, 78 of the 99 deputies, that is 79%, who voted in favor of the draft decision to dissolve itself were re-elected to the MM. The local and international community has once again witnessed very clearly that the government’s promise of political reform has not been fulfilled.

Already a significant part of the country’s opposition and the majority of independent civil society did not believe that democratic elections would be held. Non-participation of the opposition, which has the potential to organize protests, in the elections also provided an opportunity for the authorities to hold easy and free elections. However, the political will was far from democratic elections. Shortly before the election, the National Council published in the press a list of MPs that the government would mandate.

The society has been a little further away from the election process. The confidence that political changes in the country would have taken place in the elections has further diminished. Independent observers have shown that voter turnout in this election was the lowest for the past 25 years. So far, people and institutions who have been loyal to the government, have faith in the promise of reform, and hope for democratic elections have joined the ranks of the discontented. A parliament has been formed that will weaken its power politically and psychologically and discredit its authority.

The government’s renewal plan for the parliament did not come to fruition either for any reason or because there has never been such a goal at all. Both versions can be analyzed with serious arguments. But one thing that is clear is that there are no factors within the government that can personally influence I.Aliyev’s will. There is no threat or force that can have him bewared of his plan and create hesitation. He has the power to direct his government team as he wishes.

The opposition of the country is also suffered, imprisoned, and weakened through his administrative force resources whenever he wants. In this regard, there are no specific issues that are of serious concern to the authorities.

It is also difficult to provide consistent arguments to think of international influences as decisive. West’s occasional pressures on human rights and freedoms are not at the level that would force the government to withdraw. Even Azerbaijan is the first among the countries that do not follow the decisions of the European Court. The place and role of Azerbaijan in the West’s energy security are also undeniable.

Russia and Iran, as regional powers, easily receive what they want from our country. It does not have any negative role either in determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea or in the “North-South” International Transport Corridor project or in the religious, national, and political security issues of its neighboring countries.

The reasons for the hurriedness and the newly formed uncertain composition of the parliament may be due to the government's own private interests, concerns, and plans. It seems that waiting 9 months until the next election could pose some additional risk to the government. It is difficult to find another logical explanation for the resentment of the thousands of activists who run for the election as candidates and voters, following the promise of political reform.

Under the current circumstances, the government-opposition relations and the system of internal relations of society are heading towards tension. It does not seem realistic for the new parliament to gain public confidence. All segments of the population know that this MM cannot be an expression of their will. Respect for the laws in the community will be lost a little more because of the doubts in the legitimacy of laws passed by this parliament.

The government is not able to solve the country’s social and political problems alone. The society is moving towards the large-scale political activity. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the authorities to control the processes by force alone. There is still no intention of using political means for the sake of sustainability in society.

Analysis of what has happened shows that the probability of occurrence of the force majeure political situation in the country is very high. In the near future, we can witness new political and legal initiatives of the government. This could include judicial and court reforms, new referendums, and early elections. The country is embarking on a more complex and controversial era, rather than a new and stable socio-political era. The social and political consequences of the current situation can lead to fundamental changes in the country.