Experience shows, on the horizon...

The traditional criteria of the multiparty system allow predicting the direction of processes and, in some cases, even determining them. There are various factors, which are preceded by intentions and goals in the field of economics, followed by some "exercises" of the ruling party or bloc. To put it simply, if steps are taken in the interests of certain strata, both in the macroeconomic and monetary spheres, early elections are secretly launched. I have been following the parliamentary elections since September 1991 and watched the parliamentary election in June 2018 after the presidential government system was introduced, and my 30 years of experience allow me to say that the Turkish ruling bloc has already given a secret start to the early elections. Let's look at some statements...

Although President Erdoğan, who never gave up the theory of "high inflation is due to high interest rates" (which belongs to him), has appointed four Central Bank presidents in the last four years, he is worried about a 10-point rise in interest rates again and no longer hides it regardless of whether there has been interference in the work of the Central Bank: "I promise, interest rates will fall in August, and consequently, inflation will fall." For Mr. Erdoğan, who has focused on the construction sector after the introduction of the new government system of the country, the sale of housing and offices is a vital issue for the economy, and going to the next election at the current interest rate would mean a big blow to that sector. Therefore, the Central Bank's insistence on lowering interest rates again also has political significance: Although it is a problem for the ruling party to go to the polls with the current table at a time when the treasury and the Central Bank are experiencing serious problems, lowering interest rates, at least for a short period of time, giving the construction industry a breath of fresh air, seem to be the only effective step.

The opposition bloc already has to be among the people and listen to the problems and has no choice but to gain strength in this way. With the summer vacation of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, the deputies of the ruling bloc also turned to the villages. Under normal circumstances, this can be met naturally, however, it is impossible to deny that in today's conditions, the deputies of the ruling bloc go to the villages and settlements with certain promises to the voters, which is a sign of the exercises of an early election. The main task now facing the ruling bloc is to win the election again by making amendments to the law. The main factor preventing the weakening of the AKP's rating is the respect for Erdoğan’s leadership and the fact that there is currently no other leader in Turkey who knows both public administration and politics to such an extent. Therefore, the main task for the AKP is to prevent the Nationalist Movement Party's rating from falling further than its own. This is perhaps the most sensitive point of Turkish politics today. Because as Mr. Erdoğan can take very radical steps by offering an election partnership to the Kurdish-leaning HDP and the more moderate nationalist IYI Party when he sees that the MHP, which has unconditionally supported him since October 2016, cannot help in the next early elections, it can unexpectedly hold large-scale coalition talks with the main opposition party before the election. Undoubtedly, these are some of the possible variations of democratic multiparty policy, and all political institutions, large and small, are free to act within these variations. We must believe that Mr. Erdoğan will take all the legal steps we see and do not see in order to keep his party in power within the framework of the constitution, laws, and democratic rules.

Another issue that may pose a problem is the protection of Kabul airport by Turkish troops. As concerns continue, the statement of the Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, as "We will be extremely careful in matters that endanger the lives of our soldiers" at a press conference in Kabul indicates that there will be no step back from this work. Most likely, Turkey intends to solve its problems by establishing ideological ties with the Taliban, which is expected to take full control of the country. However, another issue that will pose a serious problem for Turkey is the fate of the citizens of Uzbek origin. Because the Taliban see the Uzbeks, who have been able to maintain their existence largely thanks to the patronage of Turkey since 1996, and their leader, Rashid Dostum, as one of the enemies they will never forgive. What measures will Ankara, which raises the border walls to prevent a new wave of refugees from Afghanistan and Iraq, take against the Uzbek Turks, who are very likely to come from Afghanistan?

I will ask those who are preparing to take tourists to Aghdam.

Mayis Alizade