From February to November

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2015-crisis

In 2015 following a fall in the global oil prices Azerbaijan faced an open financial crisis after two devaluations of national currency. It grew into economic, social and political system crisis. The crisis led to the growth of anti-governmental sentiments and political activity of society. At the same time, the crisis was typical for the relations between the West and Azerbaijan where exposures within the framework of Panama dossier, Azerbaijani laundry, caviar diplomacy.

Region’s leading country – the United States of America is an actual guarantor of independence and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. It is openly distant from the regime and insists on democratic transformations in the country.

Authority transaction

Under the crisis pressure and growth of protest sentiments and external pressure, there is violation of authority stability. In 2016 Aliyev announced a referendum and made some amends in the legislation. These amendments included the introduction of Vice-President institution which is not elected nationwide, not approved by the Parliament but appointed by the President.

It should be remembered that in February 2017 the President appointed his wife Mehriban Aliyeva as Vice-President to thus raise her to the rank of country’s second person. Since that moment Mehriban Aliyeva has involved in the open policy to have an appreciable influence on cadre reshuffles in the government, Presidential apparatus and Parliament.

As a matter of fact, 56-year old President, thrice elected and unrestricted in his subsequent election, began voluntarily preparing for force majeure circumstances and controlled authority transaction.

Of interest is the fact that a similar situation is typical for some countries. Thus, in Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev transferred his Presidential post to Qasym-Zhomart Tokayev but remains to head the Security Council and goes on influencing the political course. In so doing, he is responsible for gentle transition to the post-Nazarbayev period. In Russia, President Putin goes to the referendum with a view of attaching the State Council with status of supervisory body he is going to head by giving Presidential post to his elected successor. In both cases the authority is transferred to a team member, not a family member.

It must be borne in mind that the situation in Azerbaijan seems to be more complicated in terms of clan and political struggle, extreme concentration of power and capital in the hands of the «family» to cause growing dissatisfaction of other groups. A similar situation is typical for Turkmenistan and Tajikistan where Presidents Imomali Rahmonov and Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov are engaged in grooming their offspring as successors. In question remains to be a matter of successor in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he was not going to transfer power to one of his sons. And it remains unknown what model he will apply for transfer of authority.

The problem is that all countries cited above are dawdling on the transaction process from the Soviet past to the democratic future which triggered the crisis situation. Also, protest sentiments are growing: failure to implement reforms would lead to the political collapse following which departure of old elites became inevitable.

It is worth pointing out that some countries are trying to overcome crisis Rubicon. These included Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine and Kirgizia, each with its typical features to form institutions of power by means of democratic elections. Reforms in Uzbekistan were primarily economic according to Singapore scenario - thanks to iron will of President Shovkat Mirziyeev. As for the Baltic states – they returned to the fold of Western Europe. Note that the transition of the Baltic countries to democracy helped them ensure stability.

Haste

A title of the article «From February to November» is not accidental. This refers to a period embracing February 9 Parliamentary elections to November 1 when pre-arranged Parliamentary elections were set to take place.

What made the authorities to go to the polls? As we see it, not threat of strengthening of the opposition by November. February 9 election went to show that the opposition proved not ready for emergency mobilization to oppose the current authorities at the election. This gives grounds to believe that the opposition was unable to get mobilized for 6 months to come. The essential point to remember is that this capacity failed to manifest itself in the previous elections, including Presidential ones.

Particular emphasis needs to be placed on the fact that the main catalyst of sentiments in power and society is the crisis of power that started in 2015. Since that time we watched the process of acceleration of decision-making– on September 26,  2016, an urgent referendum; appointment of Mehriban Aliyeva as First Vise-President  on February 21; early Presidential elections on April 11,  2018; early Parliamentary elections on February 9, 2020; summer-autumn 2019 stage-by-stage removal from office of political Mohitans in the person of the head of Presidential administration Ramiz Mehtiyev; head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Ramil Usubov; assistant to President for social and political affairs Ali Hasanov, as well as formation of a new team consisting of politically inexperienced persons. The authorities are in a hurry. Important events were set to occur between the two dates and lay down foundations for subsequent changes in Azerbaijan.

Next referendum

As is seen, the authority transaction process has already started, and it is essential to hold a next referendum for maintaining stability. As exemplified by Kazakhstan and Russia, the government is seeking to form a new state structure led by Ilham Aliyev, enforced with appropriate authorities, supervisory Security Council. Another important decision is a transition to proportional system of elections or compromise proportional-majoritarian system to thus start a new culture of relations power-opposition within the framework of the Parliament and minimize the probability of street struggle for power. The latter tends to grow. And finally, conduct of early Presidential elections to finalize the status of M.Aliyeva as President of the new administration under the supervision and assistance of the head of Security Council.

Reforms

In considering general tendencies typical for total post-Soviet expanse and necessity of reforms in Azerbaijan caused by internal and external crises, it may be supposed that the post-election will be accompanied by reforms in the social and political sphere which are lagging behind economic reforms. Reforms having been declared three years ago notwithstanding, they are still in an embryonic state and call for more radical actions, especially in transparency, monopoly and corruption.

To develop an internal political dialogue, the authorities will have to finalize a question of political prisoners as insisted upon by the United States and the European Union, including institutions of the Council of Europe and the OSCE. It is impossible to develop a dialogue without the issue resolution. To prevent a new wave of political prisoners and close down the topic, it is insufficient to demonstrate a political will. An independent court system and independent bar and bench are required to finalize the issue.

There is reason to expect a dialogue with civil society, including political parties, NGOs and mass media. Cautious elements of the dialogue were apparent in the post-election period, specifically meetings between Adalyat Veliyev from Presidential administration and political parties, opposition figures Panah Huseynov and Ilgar Mamedov. Also, police applied soft power in respect of civil activists and protesters, especially campaigns related to women’s right protection.

Social-economic assignment

The authorities realize the necessity of transition to large-scale and realistic reforms. Note that a year-2019 was marked by stagnation in economy, monopolization in business. Despite adoption of some measures, including tax privileges, expansion of internal investments, rise in wages, writing-off credit debts and concurrently reduction of irrecoverable debts of banks.

Following the results of the year doctor of economy G. Ibadogly noted the following: "These measures, which have been adjusted to positive changes, have mitigated the weight of the problems that have accumulated in the social sphere but have not been able to provide significant support for fundamental solutions of them. The main reason for this was the increase in unemployment and inflation in Azerbaijan, contrary to economic legality. Since the estimates of the State Statistical Committee distorted the existing reality for both indicators, although this proportionality could not be seen in official reports, living conditions in Azerbaijan have become more difficult than in neighboring countries, emigration and brain drain abroad have increased. In spite of the wage increases in 2019, the average monthly wage is still higher than Azerbaijan in the countries, where the cost of the consumer basket is cheaper than that of us. 

Therefore, a new draft law on investment activity and a strategy for promoting foreign direct investment, the mechanisms of promotion of “Invest in Azerbaijan” and “First in Azerbaijan”, an Action Plan for connecting businesses operating in the country to global value chains have been developed in 2019 to stimulate investment attractiveness.

However, despite all this, the attraction of foreign direct investment in the national economy in 2019 was not satisfactory. At the same time, in the World Bank's “Doing Business” report, which is considered a reliable source for evaluating the business environment, Azerbaijan ranked 34th, by regressing 9 ranks compared to 2018."

It must be borne in mind that the situation in the social and economic sphere calls for decisive and operative steps of the government, especially in the first half year. Added to this can be coronavirus-caused force majeure circumstances that gave impetus to the fall of the world economy, drop in oil prices and trade restriction and finally hit Azerbaijan.

Foreign political compromises

In terms of undeclared foreign political blockade (over the past three years all CE and European Parliament decisions have been made to condemn the policy of the Azerbaijani authorities) official Baku is isolated and no longer capable of neutralizing external pressures.

It cannot be emphasized enough that the situation has gradually deteriorated making it necessary to revise the strategy. It was no mere coincidence that after the election on March 9 the EU announced a proposal for Azerbaijan to sign a repeatedly postponed bilateral agreement on expansion of partnership in June this year at a summit of the Eastern partnership which is quite realistic. A favorable fact is the introduction of «open skies» regime of the seventh degree for flights of foreign companies in Baku. The last issue was considered to be a major obstacle frustrating conclusion of EU-Azerbaijan agreement.

Along with the EU, there are expected steps to normalize relations with the United States. Note that a US feeble response to non-democratic elections in Azerbaijan may be regarded as inducement to perform duties by the Aliyev’ administration. These duties provide for the start of political and economic reforms in the post-election period with their subsequent development and improvement.

It ought to be noted that the resolution to the problem of political prisoners, signing a partnership agreement with the EU and beginning of a dialogue with civil society may really contribute to the improvement of US-Azerbaijan relations and bring them to the level of mutual understanding which have been reached in the course of Mehriban Aliyeva’s visit to France and Russia. Under this circumstance we can witness an Aliyeva’s visit to the United States to thus finalize a triangle of the force balance and creation of favorable consensus for forthcoming democratic changes in Azerbaijan. 

P.S. Article has been written on the eve of 30% fall in the global oil prices on March.