Pashinian loses, but not to Kocharian

There is talk in Armenia of "the beginning of the end of the Pashinyan era". His rating is undoubtedly falling. However, a question arises: What will Pashinyan's declining popularity lead to, or who will take over power from him?

Across the country, the Prime Minister has one well-known political rival - former President Robert Kocharyan. However, during Sunday's democratically held elections, it was not Kocharyan who emerged as Pashinyan's victorious opponent.

Following the elections to the Council of Elders of the enlarged community of Sevan, a bloc of parties led by incumbent Sevan mayor, Sarkis Muradyan, won. David Ambartsumyan’s team won the elections in the enlarged Masis community. In the Abovian community of Kotayk Marz, the Prosperous Armenia Party leads, and so in other communities where Pashinyan's representatives have lost.

The general trend is that in most areas local elites who are not associated with the Parliamentary opposition, representatives of the ruling party are defeated. In other words, a conclusion is once again confirmed that Armenian citizens voted for Pashinyan during last summer's Parliamentary elections so that Kocharyan and Sargsyan would not win," says political scientist Farhad Mamedov.

In an interview with Turan he said that the majority of the Armenian population does not trust any of the current political elite but hates "the former" more than Pashinyan.

Mamedov puts forward his own view on the subject:

- Pashinyan understands that discontent is growing, and as long as there is Kocharyan and Sarkisyan, he is in position to control the situation. The threat he is faced with is an alternative that can emerge around those individuals who have no ties with the "exes".

Not former, that is, unrelated to Kocharyan-Sargsyan: President Sarksyan, ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, human rights activist and former MP Edmond Marukyan and billionaire Ruben Vardanyan. Pro-Western forces will also claim the role of a third force.

- The defeat tendency in the local elections does not call into question Pashinyan's legitimacy. He won the Parliamentary elections and is legitimate. However, the Parliamentary system implies a cohesive faction in Parliament which could fracture if the Party continues to lose. Fragmentation in the Party could occur if an intra-Party group is formed that regards Pashinyan as a threat to their future. Party leaders capable of retaining a majority at the Parliament could follow this path.

- The defeat of the ruling Party is not yet systemic. Smaller parties and local elites are winning. Pashinyan is able to avail of this fact to his advantage to attain a fragmentation of the opposition.

As for Azerbaijan, one might conclude that Pashinyan, as the leader who has signed off on decisions, should not shy away from their implementation. It is not in Baku's interests to encourage political instability in Armenia so as not to push the Armenian opposition toward seizing power by force," Mamedov said.

However, news coming from Karabakh testifies to rising tensions between the local illegal Armenian military and the Azerbaijani army which will affect the internal political situation in Armenia where the probability of Pashinyan's overthrow rises. Baku recently returned ten Armenian prisoners to Yerevan; however, hostile rhetoric against Azerbaijan and Pashinyan has not abated.