The Caucasus meets Merkel with the Prussian step

Analysts from different countries have noted that it is no coincidence that before the Caucasian tour, Merkel met with President Putin - a German-speaking Russian leader and an adherent of Peter's imperial culture. Possibly, the Chancellor and the President agreed during the meeting to the depth and breadth of German expansion to the South Caucasus, taking into account, of course, traditional Russian interests.

In Yerevan, Merkel issued a hidden message to Russia, calling Armenia a successful model of simultaneous relations with the EU and Eurasia: "Armenia is an example of successful cooperation, both with Russia and the EU."

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also made it clear that Armenia is not going to take giant steps between the two poles: We intend to develop relations both with Russia within the framework of the EAEC and CSTO, and with the EU, in particular Germany.

Indeed, Russia and Germany are today Armenia"s main economic partners. But Merkel is impressed by the Pashinyan government"s actions in the fields of democracy, fighting corruption, and transparency, further steering the South Caucasian ship towards European civilization.

Two hundred years ago, the Russian empire granted German burghers the opportunity to colonize the Caucasus when German settlements appeared in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and the oil boom of the second half of the 19th century exported substantial German capital and engineering projects to Baku. This situation was emphasized especially in Georgia, which could be regarded as an invitation to the next German expansion in exchange for de-occupying part of Georgia, where Russian troops are quartered and puppet regimes are proclaimed. Merkel hinted that for her the themes of the 200th anniversary of the resettlement of the German colonists, de-occupation, and Georgian European integration are of no small importance and are the tip of the South Caucasus policy. It is no accident that, due to the historical and geographical realities, Georgia is a window for Western expansion into the Caucasus and further, to the Caspian region, especially given the conditions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, when all regional projects are regulated from Tbilisi by circumstances.

Merkel"s South Caucasus tour finished in Azerbaijan. This is the traditional route of all European politicians who arrange similar regional visits. Next, the Caspian, which divides the second echelon of the struggle for influence - Central Asia. The European and mostly German assessment of the place of Azerbaijan in the Caucasian trio is regarded as communicative. If Georgia is seen as a window to Europe, then, in Lenin's words, Azerbaijan is the gateway to the East. Pipeline and transport corridors are beginning to gain increasing importance on the eve of the big economic boom, which the world economy is pregnant with. Cross-border projects - the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, the railways, the East-West, the North-South and others, where the key place is occupied by Azerbaijan, come to the fore in the post-Soviet policy of Germany, which is called the economic locomotive of the EU.

These issues could be the center of attention at the Putin-Merkel meeting and serve as bargaining chips for Russian pipeline expansion to Europe. It can be assumed that the implementation of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, which is being lobbied by Germany, will open the way for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, the realization of which has been impeded for a long time by Moscow.

President Ilham Aliyev, as one of the communication policy players in the post-Soviet space, realizes the importance of the location and role of Azerbaijan in this matter. Taking this into account, he manages to defend his interests, which do not include any hasty integration tasks. On the eve of Merkel's visit, discussions began in Azerbaijan about the need to join the CSTO, which could be viewed as the unwillingness of the Azerbaijani elite to discuss democracy and human rights issues in an accelerated mode, and even more in the revolutionary vein of the change of vectors in Georgia and Armenia. After long exhortations by the West, the authorities released the opposition politician Ilgar Mammadov. Observers regard this gesture as a courtesy towards Germany, no more. The alleged large amnesty did not follow. Aliyev offered to be satisfied with step-by-step solutions in bilateral and multilateral relations.

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