Where is Belarus heading for?

There is no need in detailing the august events; the whole world is monitoring the situation closely in Belarus. It should be acknowledged that А. Lukashenko is forced to lose his “unshakable” grounds over and over again. And how! His previous supporters – the so-called working class and rural public are joining the protesters. It is no mere coincidence that the workers brought forward an ultimatum: resignation of the President and government, end to police arbitrariness, organization of new election, etc. It was workers that disrupted his speech (he arrived heliborne!). It transpires that there is nobody around the President but punitive bodies only: he has steeped his hands in blood of his own citizens.

It should be added that there is every indication that he keeps on losing his position. Suffice it to mention that nearly all previously detained protesters were released (nearly 10,000) while by August 17 just 144 protesters remain detained. In the meanwhile, the authorities promised, in dead earnest, to shoot t hem up! At present, an overwhelming majority of them are freed, so the authorities are doomed to face their ever growing hatred.

What is important to notice is that S. Tihanovskaya initiated establishment of a Coordination Council to ensure a transfer of power in Belarus while presidency candidates - А. Dmitriyev, S.Cherechen and A. Kanopatskaya lodged claims to the Central Election Commission on non-recognition of the election. Note that the Belarus opposition insists that S. Tihanovskaya is a President elect in transition period.

There is another point to be made is that some journalists of public television and radio handed in resignation on their own accord due to inhuman suppression of mass actions of protest. In turn, orthodox, catholic and protestant clergymen organized a Cross Procession and communal prayer against violence in the center of Minsk, at Freedom Square, and Metropolitan of Minsk and Zaslavskiy, Patriarchal Exarch of Belarus called Lukashenko cease violations over protesters.

It must be acknowledged that meetings of protest and strikes at enterprises are taking place without Special Police Force (SPF) and other punitive bodies’ interference. Every day day the protesters are joined by new, previously Lukashenko supporters. Next thing on the agenda is President’s entourage and as soon as some of them resign, the process will take a domino effect. Not long now as evidenced by Lukashenko’ congratulators due to his «victory» at the election.

Note that a longstanding, uncertain position of the West on the matter began clearing up: М. Pompeo considers it necessary to hold a new election with the participation of international observers while the European Union announced А. Lukashenko as a persona non grata, refused to recognize results of the election and got down to working over sanctions against Belarus.

In the meanwhile Lukashenko is engaged in intensive telephone consultations as saying that there a serious threat to the Allied State: «I mean to say that today’s protection of Belarus is similar to the protection of our common expanse, Allied State. Should Belarus fail, everything would collapse» - А. Lukashenko.

It’d be appropriate to give a preliminary estimate to the influence of the Belarus developments on local, regional, post-Soviet and world processes.

In local terms, Belarus interrupted a usual course of events and is at the crossroads now: the country is engaged in addressing a difficult issue of foreign political orientation. This is a complex challenge that depends upon West’s action sequence, especially as Minsk is a source of major concern after Kiev. In turn, Russia is involved in the same dimensions, including CIS, CSTO and Euro-Asian Union. Note that the mentioned structures, differently though, are responsible for the formation of not only Moscow’s leadership on the post-Soviet expanse but its security system on western, southern and south-eastern boundaries.

A dilemma lies in the fact as follows: it is possible to maintain this unstable situation through backing Lukashenko and likewise rejecting him in favor of a pro-Russian candidate (there are lots of them in Belarus!). Finally, in case of critical for Russia possible developments there is still a huge armory of methods, including intervention, economic and military pressures, subversive operations, doctored mass media propaganda. As viewed by some analysts, Putin is calmly watching current developments pondering over the use of policy successfully applied in the course of “color revolution” in Armenia?! In the reviewed period Putin left the field open, and the revolution came true.

This notwithstanding, the West is still apprehensive of the possible Russian interference, for Belarus being a small but buffer state predetermining NATO security on the eastern line of contact with Russia.

With this principle in mind, Lukashenko is trying it on the other leg: strengthening of collaboration with Moscow even despite prospective vassal relations with Russia removing all constraints on integration, and even absorption of the country by political and economic oligarchs (all in one) of Russia.

At present, the Belarus authorities are seeking to hush passions. In so doing, Lukashenko is eager to sound the keynote of policy: he suggested holding a regular presidential election after the adoption of a new constitution at the referendum. Besides, he declared that he had offered his oppositionists to recount votes at the presidential election. True, all the statements were made in the course of unofficial meetings with his electorate and workers.

It should be recognized that authorities and societies of the post-Soviet states, CIS members are deeply concerned about sequence of next developments in Belarus. The question is that the final settlement of Belarus issue is sure to play an essential role in CIS perspectives and destinies of member-countries taken separately.

It has to be kept in mind that following Georgia and Ukraine’ secession from the CIS every next demarche against this organization is similar to funeral march, especially as Belarus will be inveigled into the process.

At any rate, the post-Soviet expanse is characterized by ever growing process of transition of states from utterly strong presidential to presidential republics. It is no mere coincidence that Lukashenko has to ask for time to hold a referendum on constitutional changes; hence, the process is inconvertible and comes nearer his CIS colleagues. Another pair of shoes is that who and how will be responsible for “ex-demonstration” and genuine reforms in political structure of a country. Note that possible changes will be partly based on Belarus developments.

 That’s what Irwin Studin writes: «Today’s conflict in Belarus has come as no result of the elections. This is a matter of principle caused power continuity as primary source  of constitutional and political uncertainty and high anxiety of 12 out of 15 states on post-Soviet expanse» - South China Morning Post (Hong Kong): Russia’s response to Belarus developments might be fraught with global conflict. – August 18,.2020. He notes that none of CIS states is engaged in developing procedures of peace transition of power. The point is that any country’s leadership is well aware of the fact that vacation of office is traditionally accompanied by death, prison term or escape from the country.

One cannot shut one’s eyes that to the fact that future changes on the post-Soviet expanse will take place in an instable political world aggravated by pandemic consequences and consequential dramatism. It should be recognized that the world has ceased taking western democracy and liberalism master-classes as perfect technologies: the mischief is that founders of the mentioned technologies are in deep waters over prospects of the western civilization cornerstone.

What’s the main difference with Belarus issues at the world political arena? As a whole, the point is about growth of tensions and conflict situations to be resolved through the use of largely impacific methods. That makes sense: post-Soviet collapse consequences are coming to an end; world repartition each of which ended in world wars. A comparison between previous and present-day contradictions between key world actors reveals that the mankind pins its hopes on miracle to avert a global war.

Put another way: Where is Belarus heading for, and the whole world conjointly?