Will Armenia fulfill the terms of the joint statement?

Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia Jeyhun Bayramov and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, after talks in Moscow, which lasted more than ten hours, finally adopted a joint statement on a ceasefire for humanitarian purposes (for the exchange of prisoners, as well as the bodies of the dead) from 12:00 the same day. Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted on this. The text of the joint statement, which was adopted following the talks, directly states that it was adopted in response to an appeal by the President of Russia. The adopted document provides that the exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees and bodies of the dead, through the mediation and in accordance with the criteria of the International Committee of the Red Cross. As for the specific parameters of the ceasefire regime, they will be agreed upon additionally.

In addition, during the meeting, at the insistence of the Azerbaijani side, it was decided that the parties, through the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, would begin substantive negotiations with the aim of achieving a peaceful settlement of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh "on the basis of basic settlement principles" as soon as possible. At the same time, “the invariability of the format of the negotiation process” was emphasized.

These are two positions that Armenia tried to torpedo in order to disrupt the negotiation process. However, losing the hostilities, Armenia was forced to admit that the Madrid Principles (the codename of the basic principles for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group to the conflicting parties in Madrid in November 2007) should be the basis for the resolution the conflict. The Madrid Principles show how and in what sequence the conflict should be resolved, in what period the occupied territories should be returned to Azerbaijan. They also fix the invariability of the format of negotiations, which means that negotiations will be conducted only between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Thus, the attempts of the Armenian leadership to bring the puppet regime in Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiating table met with a fiasco.

However, all this does not yet guarantee the success of Azerbaijan. Since the Madrid principles, in addition to returning the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of Azerbaijan, in particular, provide for the determination in the future of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh on the basis of the legally binding expression of the will of its inhabitants. Azerbaijan is ready to consider Nagorno-Karabakh only as autonomy within the state and the struggle over its status is still ahead.

Nevertheless, President Ilham Aliyev in a recent interview with RBC said that Azerbaijan did not demand complete surrender from Armenia, preferring a political solution to the conflict. “… We did not agree to demand from them complete surrender at the negotiating table. We understand that Pashinyan's regime is quite vulnerable. It was also vulnerable before the escalation due to internal political reasons. Now he is even more vulnerable. I do not think that it is in the interests of Azerbaijan for another revolution to take place in Armenia now and rabid nationalists, radicals, and Azeriophobes would come to power. Therefore, we did not insist on specific dates within the framework of the statement that was agreed. But this, of course, presupposes an agreed withdrawal of the Armenian occupation forces from our territory,” he explained.

However, one can assume with a high degree of confidence that the Armenian leadership will not fulfill the conditions stipulated in the joint statement. Before the ink had dried, Armenia attempted a counteroffensive to recapture the city of Hadrut, as well as the territories of the Jabrail region and Agdere region liberated by Azerbaijan. On the same day, Armenian troops shelled the villages of Terter and Agdam regions. On October 11, at night, ballistic missiles fired from Armenia hit the second largest city of Azerbaijan, Ganja, resulting in 9 deaths and 34 injuries. The Azerbaijan Thermal Power Plant in Mingachevir is also under attack.

Yerevan's behavior suggests that it has set itself the goal of provoking Azerbaijan to strike at the territory of Armenia. This will give Russia a formal reason to stand up for it as a member of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). However, this can only induce Azerbaijan to make a choice in favor of an exclusively military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. If such a decision is made, then there will be no question of any autonomy for this entity.

Despite this conflict is a little less than 30 years old, so far none of the co-chairing countries of the Minsk Group has shown any particular interest in its political solution. On the contrary, for some of them, such a situation is beneficial. Even if the mediator in some kind of conflict benefits from it, then you can be sure that the situation will regularly escalate. This is exactly what is happening in the South Caucasus now.

Russia and the war for Karabakh

Moscow's influence on Yerevan can hardly be overestimated. The Kremlin could have long ago forced Armenia to accept Madrid, not to mention keeping it from unnecessary provocations, for example, from resettlement of Armenian refugees from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on Russia. Russia took control of the Electric Networks of Armenia company, and also the Armenian Railway (a railway system covering 9 out of 10 regions of Armenia), which is under the control of the South Caucasian Railway CJSC established in Armenia a subsidiary of JSC Russian Railways (Russian Railways), and CJSC Gazprom Armenia, is a subsidiary of the Russian company Gazprom

Most importantly, Russia is the guarantor of Armenia's security - it supplies it with weapons, has placed a base on its territory where thousands of soldiers are located (ostensibly to protect Armenia from its existential enemy Turkey).

Despite Moscow is heavily involved in Armenia, it was not (at least until recently) interested in finding a political solution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Because, thanks to this conflict, the Kremlin ensured its presence and influence in the South Caucasus. That is why she was interested in maintaining the status quo for almost 30 years.

In an interview with RBC, President Ilham Aliyev noted that “Russia's ability to influence the settlement of the conflict is incomparably greater than that of any other country.” Due to these objective reasons, the Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly appealed to the Russian leadership with request to use the mechanisms of political influence on Armenia to persuade it to end the occupation. However, nothing came of it - obviously, the current situation suited Moscow.

As a result, it can be assumed that the beginning defeat of the Armenian Armed Forces in Karabakh should have come as an unpleasant surprise for Moscow. However, oddly enough, the Kremlin reacted rather calmly to the offensive of the Azerbaijani army. There was no belligerent rhetoric against Baku, no political pressure to stop the fighting.

It can be assumed that the situation is developing in this way, because now Moscow most likely has no opportunity to eliminate the undesirable scenario. Since, firstly, there are no formal reasons for intervention, and secondly, the Kremlin, which is already burdened by its presence in Syria, Libya and Ukraine, cannot afford to enter another conflict, now in the South Caucasus with Azerbaijan, which moreover, in one bundle with Russia's partner - Turkey.

However, there is another point of view.

Russia does not want to interfere in this conflict because, although on the one hand, it wants to protect Armenia, on the other hand, it does not want to quarrel with Azerbaijan, and even more so with Turkey.

Azerbaijan was not hostile to Russia. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan pursued a completely independent foreign policy, it did not do it demonstratively, in opposition to Moscow. Cooperating with NATO, it never said that his goal was to join the alliance in order to be a stronghold of Western civilization on the borders of Russia.

Not being a sphere of Russian influence, not being drawn into the Russian orbit, not participating in Russian integration projects like the CSTO, and even in economic ones, Azerbaijan had excellent relations with Russia. Because the feeling of opposition from the West was more important for Russian President Vladimir Putin than such private quarrels.

Therefore, Putin has nothing to show Azerbaijan. Armenia is an "outpost" and one wants to protect it, but Russia has nothing to punish Azerbaijan for. As for Turkey, although its interests sometimes overlap with those of Russia, for Turkey it is an important, albeit difficult, partner. Both in Syria and in Libya we had to deal with it, but there is a common platform - the anti-Western platform of the two leaders. This confrontation with the West brings them together so much that regional contradictions have not yet been able to split this common platform.

In Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan is the leader of the "color revolution", which is a mortal sin in the eyes of the Kremlin. For this reason, Putin will be indifferent to the fact that Baku is smashing Yerevan until the Armenians through a revolution or a coup overthrow the Pashinyan regime.

The following fact confirms it:

Since September 27, Putin has already spoken to Pashinyan four times. As the press service of the Kremlin reported, during the last conversation, the sides discussed the aggravation of the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the Russian leader called for an urgent end to the fighting.

On October 7, for the first time since the start of the counter-offensive of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Karabakh, Vladimir Putin discussed the situation with President Ilham Aliyev. There were no calls for an end to hostilities. However, soon it becomes known about the liberation of the villages of Chayly, Yukhari Guzlek, Gorazilli, Gishlag, Garajaly, Efendiler, Suleimanli and Sur by the Azerbaijani army.

At the same time, Azerbaijani troops continue to increase pressure in the Aghdara direction and, thus, the liberation of this region from the separatists is a matter of time. However, if Agdere falls, then Khankendi will actually be caught in the pincers between this village and Hadrut. In this situation, the Armenians are likely to flee from Karabakh. Vladimir Putin is hastily seeking the signing of a joint ceasefire statement by Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is possible that with this he wants to stop the advance of the Azerbaijani army. In any case, it is clear that the fall of Khankendi is not included in his plans.

Ankara's position

Turkey is the only country that was initially interested in a lasting peace in the Caucasus. It is not surprising, therefore, that on October 2; President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized the statements of Putin, Macron and Trump on Karabakh.

“The USA, Russia and France have neglected this problem for almost 30 years. It is unacceptable that they participate in the search for a solution to the ceasefire,” he said and added that the conflict will end only if the Armenian military leaves Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Russia has been acting as the main and only "peacemaker" and mediator in the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan for many years. As already mentioned, there are no results and it is clear that if such a configuration persists, this conflict will drag on for a very long time. It is impossible to remove Russia from the field, but if you remove it from the position of a peacemaker and mediator, introduce a new player into the equation, and then the situation will radically change.

It is for this reason that Turkey is now extremely tough on the side of Azerbaijan, forcing Russia to change the status of "peacemaker" and accept the position of Armenia. This will allow Azerbaijan to question the impartiality of Russia and officially invite a new participant - Turkey. The Kremlin understands this scheme and opposes it in every possible way.

Earlier, Russian sources reported on a "nervous telephone conversation" between Putin and Erdogan on 28 September. If these reports are to be believed, Erdogan told Putin that he intended to shoot down all foreign military aircraft that would find themselves in the combat zone and to eliminate any foreign mercenaries in the conflict zone. By the way, Karabakh is already the third point on the map where Russia collides with Turkey. The current situation is aggravated by the rapidly changing environment and the balance of power. Ankara, which has increased its influence in the region in recent years, openly supports Baku, which is quite understandable - a successful solution to the Karabakh problem will further strengthen Ankara's influence in the region and open the way to Central Asia.

What does the West think about this?

The West has little interest in the conflict on the very periphery of Europe. The United States has abandoned its role as world peacekeeper, while the European Union is unwilling and unable to take it upon itself. True, Washington proposed an immediate cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, US President Donald Trump said about this. His position is quite understandable - he expects to win the presidential elections, and the Armenian community of the United States is, after all, a factor in American politics. However, it is doubtful that Trump will risk opposing himself to Turkey - his important partner in the region, in the eastern Mediterranean, in the Middle East - Turkey. Therefore, no concrete practical actions on the part of Washington should be expected.

As for the position of Paris, it was very accurately described by the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, head of the foreign policy department of the Presidential Administration Hikmet Hajiyev, who bluntly stated that France does not understand the essence of the conflict in unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh.

“We had to see France as a mediator. However, France does not understand the essence of this conflict. It is clear that France has always supported the Armenian side and was inclined towards Armenia,” he said. At the same time, he stressed that some French politicians want to enlist the support of the Armenian lobby on the eve of the elections.

Iran prefers the status quo

Iran stands out among the decisively disinterested in a new Karabakh war. However, little that depends on him in preventing a military escalation around Karabakh, as it was a few years ago. In reducing the degree of influence of the Iranian factor on the elimination of a large-scale military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, first of all, tough US sanctions and the need to focus Tehran's attention on the Persian Gulf zone, where, from its point of view, the main events, played a role. Regarding the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, Iran formally, stands on the fact that an exclusively peaceful solution to the conflict is necessary based on international law.

Iran fears that a new war in Karabakh, regardless of its results, will make Azerbaijan dependent on Turkey. This absolutely does not suit him. In addition, there are fears that the scenario of a large-scale war over Karabakh will create turbulence for the regions of Iran, adjacent to the southern borders of Azerbaijan. With any development in the region, a new situation will arise, which may benefit Turkey with its wide network of relations with Azerbaijan along political and military lines.

Therefore, Tehran is interested in prolonging the situation of “no war, no peace” for an indefinite future.