After Khamenei: Is an Iranian Revolution Realistic?

The escalation of the crisis around Iran is already having a noticeable impact on the global oil market, pushing up prices and increasing volatility, while for Azerbaijan higher prices mean increased export revenues and the potential expansion of transit flows from Central Asia, analysts say.

The death of Iran’s supreme leader has shaken a region already accustomed to uncertainty. For Azerbaijan, which shares more than 600 kilometers of border with Iran and maintains complex economic and security ties, this moment is not merely a foreign policy challenge. It is a test of strategic equilibrium.

In the charged atmosphere of speculation about Iran’s political future, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the country’s last shah, has offered something rare among exiled opposition figures: a blueprint.

On March 1, Iranian state television confirmed that the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in his Tehran residence during a coordinated U.S.–Israeli missile strike carried out under the codename “Lion’s Roar.” His death marks the most profound rupture in Iran’s political order since the 1979 revolution.