World: Important Political Events of 2021

I. 01.01.21: Great Britain left the EU completely, and already on September 15th, together with the USA and Australia, it created a new military-technical unit AUKUS with a clear Anglo-Saxon bias.

II. 06.02.21: in Washington, D. Trump's supporters broke into the Capitol, where at that time the election results were discussed, at which the electoral votes were to be certified.

III. 29.01.21: V. Putin signed the law of an agreement extending START-3 for five years.

IV.  23.05.21: Incident with the plane landing in Minsk, arrest of the editor of the Nexta channel R. Protasevich. Sharp aggravation of relations between the West and the Russia-Belarus tandem. Autumn - winter: the migration crisis.

V. 16.06.21: Summit was held in Geneva with the participation of the presidents of Russia and the United States.

VI. 15.08.21: The fall of Kabul and the transfer of power in Afghanistan to the Taliban. Creation of a transitional government. Liquidation of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The Taliban proclaimed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

VII. 03.10.21: CPI publishes Pandora's Archives.

VIII. 31.10.21: UN Climate Change Conference kicks off in Glasgow.

IX. 08.12.21: Angela Merkel resigned. Olaf Scholz became the new Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.

X. 11.12.21.21: USA held a virtual Summit for Democracy.

The threat of the "collapse of the United States", the political consequences of the pandemic and the fight against climate change, the growing tensions between the US and China, the war in the digital space, the problems of Turkey, Iran: this is not a complete list of political problems that the world faced in 2021 and which, obviously , will be inherited in the coming year.

Another "gift" will be the further defeat of the slogan: "The political conflict has no military solution." Peacekeepers were losing all over the world, and most of the problems were solved by force.

In early February, a military coup took place in Myanmar, and a state of emergency was declared in the country. Two coup attempts took place in Sudan, in July a group of unknown assailants attacked the residence and killed Haitian President J. Moise, in April Chadian President I. Deby died of wounds and the military announced the dissolution of parliament and government and the formation of a transitional military council to govern the country. Another military coup took place in Guinea.

The Middle East continues to amaze analysts with a new alignment of political alliances in the region, in which Israel and a number of Arab countries oppose Iran, and also try to neutralize Turkey's desire to become the leader of the Islamic world.

In these conditions, supplemented by the coming to power in Iran of conservative forces, the main intrigue - the nuclear deal (JCPOA) - will take a significant part of 2022 with the possibility of a war in the region. Accordingly, the role of the Russia-Turkey tandem is increasing, which after the curtailment of the US activity becomes almost the only mediator of the Middle East policy. Whether this will lead to the preservation of the unity and opposition of these states on the issues of Syria, Libya, Ukraine, the South Caucasus, or the long-awaited break of the tandem by the West, the very near future will show.

True, this is not the main headache of the Western alliance, since China is beginning to outstrip the most optimistic forecasts of its economic and military growth and expansion of its presence in the world. In mid-June, Joe Biden's first foreign visit took place, the purpose of which was to restore the global leadership of the United States and the political unity of the collective West in rivalry with the Russian Federation and China.

This desire of the United States was crumpled by the flight from Afghanistan and discouraged by the EU (and NATO) with the creation of the AUKUS bloc. In late August, the United States completed a 20-year mission in Afghanistan. In early September, the Taliban, after capturing the last uncontrolled province, established a regime across the country that was a direct challenge to Western democracy.

Although the creation of AUKUS shocked the entire EU, the main blow fell on France, which lost a contract for the supply of 12 submarines worth over € 50 billion. Paris called this decision a "stab in the back." Meanwhile, the transformation of Australia into a country with nuclear submarines with US cruise missiles, as well as the creation of a new bloc, is an attempt to suppress the influence of China and Russia in this new center of world politics. And at this time (October) inflation in the United States broke the record for the last 30 years, and talk about the collapse of the unipolar world acquired a substantive character against the background of complicated internal processes in this country. By the end of November, Biden's rating dropped to 40%, but he had already announced his intention to run for a second term in 2024. D. Trump announced this even earlier, and the intrigue will not be 24, but 22 years, when the US will hold interim elections.

In this context, one should consider Biden's attempts at the price of concessions to neutralize Russia's desire to make cooperation with the PRC strategic in nature. The decisions of the United States and NATO on the draft documents on security guarantees submitted to the Russian Federation at the end of the year will be very indicative. Russia offered NATO not to conduct major military exercises in the border zone, to abandon any military activity in Ukraine, the South Caucasus, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The United States - to consolidate the commitment not to deploy intermediate and shorter-range missiles and nuclear weapons outside its national territory and to return those already in there, to refrain from deploying weapons in areas where this will be perceived as a threat to national security. The United States must pledge not to expand NATO "eastward" and refuse to admit countries that were formerly part of the USSR into the alliance. So far, the tension between Ukraine and Russia is only growing, and this is the most alarming event in 2021.

At this time, the EU accused Belarus of artificially creating a crisis using migrants as a "hybrid weapon". Relations between Minsk and Brussels have become so tense that President Lukashenko allowed Russia's nuclear weapons to appear on his territory.

Thus, the world in 2021 has completely polarized along the axis of confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism. Paradoxically, the members of the EU and NATO, some former democracies of Latin America, Africa and Asia, found themselves in the camp of authoritarianism. That is why, sooner or later, a real battle must begin between these two currents of world politics. D. Biden, believing that time is lost, for the first time in history held the "Summit of Democracies", where only 110 states with a democratic form of government were invited. “This event demonstrated that there is a democratic world everywhere,” Joe Biden said in a speech at the closing meeting of the summit, promising to strengthen democracy in the United States and abroad.

The United States announced a Year of Action as early as 2021, with targeted dialogues between summit participants to strengthen support for reform and joint planning for a second summit.

According to analysts, the confrontation between democracy and autocracy is the main trend of 2021, and as long as this is the case, this trend will cover the next year. And the main blows from both sides of the confrontation will be delivered to countries that will try to remain neutral in this battle.

Meanwhile, with A. Merkel's departure from politics, the period of dominance of significant leaders in Western democracies practically ended, while the authoritarian country never tires of nominating more and more charismatic leaders who demonstrate the advantages of a "strong hand" in conditions of political chaos, sporadic economic crises, animation strains of the coronavirus pandemic.

Towards the end of the outgoing year (26.12), the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dm. Peskov said: "Russia is an absolutely democratic country, and those who say otherwise do not know the specifics of Russian life." According to the press secretary, Washington is trying to call some countries democratic and some not, and the virtual Summit for Democracy held by the United States on December 9-10 actually divided the whole world into undemocratic and democratic.

It will be interesting to see the battle of rival political systems and their leaders in the coming year.

Ali Abasov