Non-fulfillment the commitments by the Karabakh separatists complicates the fragile peace process

As international mediators step up efforts to establish a comprehensive peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the fragile negotiation process is facing a new challenge from the Karabakh separatists. The separatists led by Samvel Shahramanyan, who earlier dissolved the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on September 28, reversed their decision on December 22, making a choice outside Azerbaijan in favor of the actual restoration of the NKR.

Shahramanyan and his supporters declared the previous dissolution "illegal", making it invalid. This strategic move by the separatist leader was taken at a crucial moment, just as the two countries were on the verge of signing a comprehensive peace treaty brokered by international mediators.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev outlined three fundamental principles of peace – mutual recognition of Soviet borders, delimitation and opening  communications. Aliyev agreed to these conditions, renouncing territorial claims. However, Shahramanyan's unexpected turn puts an end to the progress achieved so far.

The timing of Shahramanyan's decision raises questions about his motives, threatening to undermine the positive dynamics of the peace talks. This step puts the Armenian community of Karabakh back on a destructive path, rejecting proposals for joint peaceful coexistence with Azerbaijan, which have been on the negotiating table for more than three decades.

Throughout the protracted Karabakh conflict, the separatists consistently ignored the proposals of both Yerevan and Baku, giving priority to the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. This unyielding position, often used by Yerevan to maintain control over the occupied territories, eventually led to the 2020 war and the subsequent disintegration of the NKR.

The ongoing separatist activities of the self-proclaimed republic stationed in Armenia pose a threat to the peace process. While Pashinyan's government refrains from opposing the actions of the separatists in order to avoid internal political tensions, the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement faces the risk of prolonged stagnation.

Unlike the period before the 2020 war, when Azerbaijan did not use a counter-strategy, this time Baku has a potential counterweight in the form of an organization of Western Azerbaijanis claiming a significant part of the territory of Armenia, which is called hysterical Western Azerbaijan in Baku. Both sides can use the factors of Karabakh Armenians and Western Azerbaijanis to hinder not only bilateral initiatives, but also the efforts of international mediators.

This complex geopolitical alignment seems to benefit both sides in different ways. Azerbaijan, which is in a state of uncertainty with the peace treaty, continues to strengthen its territorial sovereignty, while Armenia hopes for favorable future circumstances. The interaction of these opposing trends will determine the dynamics of the development of the South Caucasus in the coming year, creating problems for the fragile balance achieved during the recent negotiations.