The pre-election wave of arrests…

Over the past month, many journalists, political and public activists have been arrested in the country. Among them, the director of the “AbzasMedia” publication Ulvi Hasanli, its editor-in-chief Sevinj Vagifgizy, the project manager of the “AbzasMedia” website Muhammad Kekalov, investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly, journalist Nargiz Absalamova, reporter Teymur Kerimov, an employee of a number of Internet TV channels, the presenter of Kanal 13 Rufat Muradli, known for their corruption investigations.

Along with journalists, Tofiq Yagublu, a member of the National Council and the Musavat Party, and Mohyeddin Orujev, a public activist, were also among those arrested last week.

Why are these pre-election arrests taking place?

Elman Fattah, an expert on international issues and a member of the Founding Board of the “Platform III of the Republic,” answers these and other questions from ASTNA.

Question: What is the reason for the recent arrests? What is behind them?

Answer:  Obviously, because the country has an authoritarian government. Authoritarian authorities are intolerant of alternative political views and critical media. They use the power of the state to destroy such structures, to silence individuals. And the main force of the authoritarian authorities is law enforcement agencies. With the help of arrests, the authorities seek to create an atmosphere of fear in society and, if possible, completely eliminate critical people.  And this creates a large army of political prisoners. There are hundreds of them in Azerbaijan now.  The latest wave of repression is a consequence of this kind of managerial thinking. Over the past few years, critical media in Azerbaijan have been trying to revive using the possibilities of new technologies. However, the Aliyev regime is very sensitive and immediately reacted to the revival attempt.

Question: In recent years of Azerbaijan's almost 30-year political history, arrests have usually occurred after elections, but now the opposite is happening. Now the arrests are taking place before the elections. Why?

Answer: Azerbaijani authoritarianism has gone through different stages - consultative authoritarianism, group authoritarianism, oligarchic authoritarianism and, since 2016, the authoritarianism of one person.  These transformations were constantly accompanied by a tightening trend.  Now it is already approaching its peak. As the regime tightens, its tolerance for critical thinking decreases. If earlier, until about 2010, arrests were usually made to suppress mass protests after elections, then since 2013 they have been used before elections. That is, they no longer have the patience to listen to criticism even during elections.

Question: What is the reason for such a sudden need for early elections?

Answer: You used the word "suddenly" very appropriately.  Because early elections must necessarily have a legitimate reason. If we give examples from the history of elections in Azerbaijan, then both in 1992 and in 1993 there were legitimate reasons for calling early presidential elections, and this was not a surprise to anyone. Ayaz Mutallibov's resignation in March 1992 became the legitimate reason for the presidential elections. And in 1993, the abolition of Elchibey's presidency required new elections. But neither the past nor the current snap presidential elections have a legitimate reason. The government itself does not voice any reason. Therefore, regarding the reasons for holding early elections, it is possible to build only conspiracy assumptions.

In my opinion, the consistent pressure of the West on Ilham Aliyev in connection with the signing of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia can be voiced as an assumption. There is plenty of open information justifying this pressure. It is well known that the last visit of the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs took place precisely in the context of peace negotiations. I believe that by making such a decision the day after the meeting with Mr. James O'Brien, Ilham Aliyev gets two opportunities to evade the pressure of the West seeking to sign peace. Due to the beginning of the election period, it is necessary to avoid signing a peace agreement until spring. And in the fall, the United States enters the election period.  And thus, in the worst-case scenario, he wins at least more than a year to abandon such an agreement.

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Question: Can the Russia-West factor be present in what is happening?

Answer: I voiced my opinion about the elections above.  As for the political arrests, I can add that the arrests this time are mainly caused by the tendency to tighten authoritarian rule, as well as the fact that Ilham Aliyev is preparing to make his geopolitical choice in favor of an international authoritarian coalition. You see, the Russian-Ukrainian war is perceived by the collective West as a war between democracies and autocracies.  This war is intensifying the polarization in world politics. The policy of introducing a traditional balanced policy or establishing equally good relations with both sides, rapprochement with Moscow politically and with the West economically, has already become a thing of the past. Ilham Aliyev is forced to make a final choice, and the choice of the democratic front is impossible for him. Also, the latest wave of repression aims to drown out the voices that will presumably be heard when this choice becomes obvious.

Question: Why does the government treat so harshly, while the theses "There is no alternative to Ilham Aliyev" and "the reputation of the Supreme Commander who captured Karabakh is very high" are very often heard?

Answer: As already mentioned at the beginning, authoritarian regimes, as they strengthen, strengthen their foundations, as you say, eliminate alternatives, they become even more ruthless.  And Ilham Aliyev is no exception. Those who think that the image of the victorious president will encourage him to pursue a softer policy are people who do not understand the essence of authoritarianism.