Peace process under the pressure of destructivism

Ankara accepted the outstretched helping hand of Armenia after the tragedy in southern Turkey, and the parties exchanged high-level statements of solidarity and gratitude, which became a signal for the release of the hidden regular dialogue to the open level. This may indicate that Yerevan and Ankara are ripe for the start of a public peace process between the two countries, including the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which throughout this period has been a concomitant factor hindering the achievement of Armenian-Turkish reconciliation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed hope after meeting with his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Ankara on February 15 that solidarity in the humanitarian sphere "will become an impetus for the process of normalizing relations in the South Caucasus."

“Advances in Armenia's dialogue with Turkey and Azerbaijan will contribute to stability in the region. If our three countries take sincere steps, we will be able to achieve long-term peace in the South Caucasus,” the Turkish minister said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have intensified the process of developing a peace treaty between the two countries. Armenia is working on the text of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and on the recently received proposals from the Azerbaijani side.

Sarkis Khandanyan, Chairman of the NA Standing Committee on Foreign Relations, recalled that the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides are submitting proposals to each other on the text of the peace treaty. Recently, Azerbaijan sent its proposals to Armenia.

“Armenia is working on these proposals. When our proposals are ready, they will be sent to Azerbaijan,” Khandanyan said.

After the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, negotiations on a peace treaty took on a protracted character, which was due to the position of Armenia, which did not want to recognize the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Subsequently, Yerevan withdrew itself in this matter, delegating it to the Armenians of Karabakh. Those, in turn, took an uncompromising position, especially after the arrival of the Russian billionaire of Armenian origin Ruben Vardanyan in the region. Baku responded to the challenge by partially closing the Lachin road linking Armenia and Karabakh by environmental activists. Undoubtedly, this was a non-standard pass for a hot region, which turned the arrows from the military to the peaceful process of solving the problem of the coexistence of Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

In this new settlement process, two growing parallel planes of peace can be noted, which are highlighted in the Yerevan-Baku and Khankendi-Baku dialogues.

“Armenia is in favor of holding talks between Stepanakert (Khankendi - ed.) and Baku within the framework of an internationally visible mechanism. And Armenia continues to work with its international partners to make this mechanism work. This mechanism can be considered in the peace treaty that is being negotiated. These may be other international structures or a different format. While not concrete, this is a subject of discussion, we must continue the discussion so that it is clear," Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan told reporters in the National Assembly on February 14.

It can be expected that the Baku-Yerevan line, including the participation of Ankara, as Cavusoglu stated above, will outwardly look constructive and positive, but it will be undermined by the destructiveness of the Karabakh Armenians, as it was in the past. At a time when the foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey announced a new relationship, separatist leader Arayik Harutyunyan announced the celebration of the 35th anniversary of the Armenian Movement for the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, which marked the beginning of subsequent bloody events, in Khankendi.

This frank challenge to the process of forming a peace treaty is aimed at blocking any positive initiatives, no matter who they come from. The self-confidence of the separatists is fueled by the presence of Russian troops in Karabakh. Without them, they would be much more constructive.