Populism and Calls for Revenge: The Pre-Election Situation in Armenia

As parliamentary elections approach in Armenia, political tensions are increasing.

The country’s authorities are building their election campaign around peace with Azerbaijan, closer relations with Europe, and regional cooperation.

At the same time, the European summit held in early May and the state visit of the President of France boosted the ratings of the ruling party and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself.

Statements by European Union leaders and signed bilateral documents are shaping Armenia’s future strategy and making it clearer and more understandable for ordinary citizens.

Meanwhile, the opposition is focusing on speculation surrounding Karabakh, the alleged impossibility of surviving without Russia, and the inability of the West to help Armenia.

Thesis 1: Returning to Karabakh

“We will fight for the return of Armenian territories occupied by Azerbaijan,” said Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian oligarch and candidate for prime minister from the “Strong Armenia” party.

Speaking about Karabakh, he stated that it would not be possible to regain it in the coming years, and perhaps even decades. “Our main task is to ensure a dignified life for Karabakh Armenians in Armenia and to achieve their safe return to Karabakh,” he said.

“I cannot say that we will solve this issue very quickly, but we will do everything possible to achieve it,” Karapetyan added.

He accused Pashinyan of rejecting the Russian version of the settlement process, which, according to him, caused Armenians to lose Karabakh.

Another issue actively exploited by the Armenian opposition is the claim that Pashinyan agreed to the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis to Armenia. Referring to a statement by the President of Azerbaijan, Karapetyan added that the Azerbaijani side is “very serious about this matter” and that the process must be stopped.

Opposition media outlets and online resources controlled by opposition forces are acting in a similar manner. For example, Politik.am, a publication close to former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, claims that Baku will not sign a peace agreement even if references to Nagorno-Karabakh are removed from Armenia’s constitution.

According to the publication, after amendments to the Armenian constitution, Baku will demand the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis to Armenia, allegedly with Pashinyan’s consent. As evidence, the author cites President Ilham Aliyev’s address to participants of a conference on “Western Azerbaijan,” where he expressed confidence in the peaceful return of Azerbaijanis to their historical lands in Armenia.

The same publication also claims that, according to an analysis allegedly conducted by specialists from a Western country, 72 percent of state employees will vote for Robert Kocharyan in the elections.

Thesis 2: The Danger of Closer Relations With the West

Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union would be extremely painful for the country’s economy, according to Russian publication Sputnik Armenia, citing economist Agasi Tavadyan.

Since 2018, Armenia’s exports to Eurasian Economic Union countries have increased more than fivefold, while exports to Russia alone have grown more than threefold. At the same time, exports to the European Union declined by 5 percent. However, Tavadyan acknowledges that these figures indicate the re-export of Western goods to Russia.

The joint declaration adopted at the Armenia-European Union summit in Yerevan on May 5 states that Yerevan commits itself to avoiding circumvention of European Union sanctions and preventing the re-export of dual-use goods.

Tavadyan admits that in 2024 alone, Armenia facilitated the re-export of gold and other precious metals worth nearly 8 billion dollars to the United Arab Emirates. In addition, more than 1 billion dollars worth of goods from third countries entered Russia through Armenia.

In 2025, re-exports from Russia and to Russia through Armenia exceeded 4 billion dollars. The economist acknowledges that Armenia’s reorientation toward the West and participation in sanctions against Russia would deprive Yerevan of enormous financial inflows and seriously damage the country’s economy.

The closure of the Russian market for Armenia would mean catastrophe, because 90 percent of Armenian products are sold there. These include agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and plastic goods. According to Tavadyan, the European Union market remains closed to these products because they do not meet European standards.

Thesis 3: Armenia Cannot Quarrel With Russia

The main goal of the European Union is to turn Armenia into a second anti-Russian outpost after Ukraine. European summits in Yerevan should be viewed precisely in this context. This was also stated by Sputnik Armenia, citing local political strategist Vigen Akopyan.

Discussions about reforms, integration into European values and standards, economic cooperation, and other generous promises are instruments designed to “detach Armenia from Russia.” According to Akopyan, these agreements and promises are unlikely to be implemented and mainly serve a propaganda purpose, while the threats facing Armenia are already very real in the near future.

In the context of geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, Armenia is expected to make a clear choice. Macron’s statements that Europe should play a more active role in guaranteeing Armenia’s security, as well as references to the presence of thousands of Russian troops on Armenian territory, highlight the dilemma facing Yerevan. In practice, this can be interpreted as a call for the withdrawal of the Russian military base.

According to Akopyan, the President of France is simply bargaining with Russia, but Armenia itself could suffer greatly by becoming a bargaining chip.

Ratings of Political Forces One Month Before the Elections

Ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, the ruling “Civil Contract” party leads opinion polls with support ranging from 24 percent to 40 percent, depending on the source.

Opposition forces such as “Strong Armenia” and “Prosperous Armenia” are polling between 13 percent and 19 percent and between 6 percent and 9 percent respectively. Supporters of former President Robert Kocharyan remain in the minority.

Latest Public Opinion Polls

MPG (Gallup, March 2026):

• “Civil Contract” — 24.3 percent (Nikol Pashinyan);
• “Strong Armenia” — 13.4 percent (Samvel Karapetyan);
• “Prosperous Armenia” — 7.9 percent (Gagik Tsarukyan);
• “Armenia” bloc — 5.5 percent (Robert Kocharyan).

PolitPro Trend (May 2026):

• “Civil Contract” — 40 percent;
• “Strong Armenia” — 19.3 percent;
• “Prosperous Armenia” — 8.3 percent;
• “Armenia” bloc — 6.6 percent.

According to many sources, a significant share of voters, reaching up to 30 percent, remains undecided or does not plan to participate in the elections. This simultaneously increases uncertainty and preserves political intrigue.

What Are Azerbaijan’s Interests?

Analysts at Turan believe that Azerbaijan is interested in ensuring that Armenia’s parliamentary elections on June 7, 2026 reinforce Yerevan’s peaceful course. This would help prevent any revision of agreements related to Karabakh.

Baku’s main interests include the signing of a peace agreement, the opening of TRIPP, also known as the Zangezur corridor, and recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. These steps could stabilize the region and prevent escalation that might be provoked by a change of power and opposition revanchism.

As Armenian political analyst Areg Kochinyan stated, the elections in Armenia represent a test for Yerevan’s willingness to accept the new reality that emerged after the Karabakh war.

Azerbaijan cannot directly interfere in Armenia’s elections, but it can use diplomatic and informational instruments to support Pashinyan’s course. The main strategy would be to accelerate peace agreement negotiations before June 7 in order to strengthen the government’s position and discredit the opposition as revanchist forces.

Economic cooperation, avoidance of harsh rhetoric, and contacts at the societal level could support those forces in Armenia that advocate peace with Azerbaijan. Official Baku could emphasize that peace is possible only with the current government, while the opposition could return the region to confrontation.

It is also considered important to work with the European Union and the United States to limit support for the opposition by emphasizing the risks of a new war. At the same time, escalation along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border should be avoided.