Can tensions increase on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border?

Recent skirmishes near the Azerbaijani-Armenian border have reignited concerns over regional stability, prompting speculation and analysis from political commentators. The exchange of fire resulted in casualties on both sides, with the Armenian Defense Ministry reporting the deaths of four soldiers and injuries to others. In response to perceived provocations, Azerbaijan initiated a retaliatory operation, destroying an Armenian combat post allegedly responsible for shelling Azerbaijani positions.

After these incidents, political commentator Elhan Shahinoglu, in an interview with the Difficult Question program, offers insights into potential motives and actors involved in the escalating tensions. Shahinoglu outlines three possible scenarios: an internal Armenian affair, foreign intervention to disrupt peace efforts, or a calculated move by the Armenian authorities to reclaim lost territories. While dismissing the latter as improbable, Shahinoglu suggests the involvement of external forces, citing connections between the Yerkrapah Volunteer Union and Russia.

Shahinoglu points to previous remarks by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding a purported "5th column" within the Armenian Armed Forces, hinting at Russian influence. Given the historical ties between Armenia and Russia, particularly within military circles, Shahinoglu speculates on a potential Russian agenda to exacerbate regional tensions. He underscores the likelihood of Russia seeking to assert its influence over both Azerbaijan and Armenia while undermining Pashinyan's leadership.

The expert's analysis emphasizes the need for decisive action by Pashinyan to counter perceived Russian interference and internal threats. Shahinoglu calls for stringent measures against groups like Yerkrapah, positioning them as potential proxies for Russian interests. By addressing internal vulnerabilities and asserting sovereignty, Shahinoglu suggests Pashinyan can mitigate external pressures and safeguard Armenia's interests.