Has Europe turned against Azerbaijan? For what reason?

At the plenary session, the Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) recommended not approving the credentials of the Azerbaijani delegation, suggesting a potential one-year suspension of their powers. The decision on the extent of the limitation will be revealed during the upcoming debates, where PACE may choose to fully or partially restrict the Azerbaijani delegation.

German MP Frank Schwabe spearheaded the initiative to curb Azerbaijan's powers, citing ongoing human rights violations, a growing number of political prisoners, Azerbaijan's refusal to invite PACE to evaluate the upcoming presidential elections on February 7, and the denial of access to PACE speakers to the Lachyn corridor in 2023.

Simultaneously, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, accused Azerbaijan of encroaching on Armenia's sovereignty, expressing serious concern over President Aliyev's recent territorial claims and warning of severe consequences for relations with Azerbaijan.

The joint stance of PACE and the EU on Azerbaijan has sparked ambiguity, given that the accusations regarding political prisoners and human rights violations have been persistent for over a year without resulting in such measures. Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, shared his vision of the situation in the "Difficult Question" program, explaining the unprecedented steps by two main factors.

Gasimli posited that Azerbaijan's previously balanced foreign policy has shifted, and the authorities have unequivocally aligned themselves with Russia, accelerating their rapprochement with the Putin regime. The second factor, he argued, is the absence of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Aliyev's recent insistence on Russian control over transport links through the Zangezur corridor, a point of contention for Armenia, heightens the potential for conflict.

Gasimli highlighted Aliyev's remarks indicating that if Armenia does not agree to these conditions, Azerbaijan will not open the border in any other location, implying a looming threat of resumed hostilities. He contended that Western pressure on Azerbaijan stems from the belief that Azerbaijan and Russia are gearing up for war, aiming to overthrow Pashinyan.

The West, fearing such a scenario, seeks to deter Azerbaijan's alleged preparations for conflict. Gasimli concluded that the intensified pressure is a preventive measure to forestall the eruption of hostilities and maintain stability in the region. The delicate balance between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia remains a focal point of concern for European organizations grappling with the geopolitical complexities of the South Caucasus.