The election is over. What's next?

The dust has settled after Azerbaijan's early presidential elections on February 7, with Ilham Aliyev clinching victory, securing his fifth term in office over the next seven years. The swift announcement of these elections, catching the opposition off guard, virtually assured Aliyev's triumph, leaving little room for doubt among observers.

The rationale behind Aliyev's decision to hold snap elections, given his widespread popularity following the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, raises pertinent questions about his motives and the message he intends to convey. To delve into these intricacies, political commentator Zardusht Alizadeh offers insights in the program "Difficult Question."

Alizadeh posits various theories to explain Aliyev's strategic calculus. Notably, he suggests that Aliyev may have sought to preempt potential obstacles posed by external factors, particularly the Russian dimension. In light of past electoral challenges stemming from the "Putin factor," Aliyev may have aimed to neutralize any interference from Russia by capitalizing on distractions surrounding the upcoming Russian elections.

Moreover, Alizadeh highlights internal pressures that may have influenced Aliyev's decision-making, citing a perceived threat to his power by elements within the ruling elite. The eruption of unrest in 2020, coupled with demands for military action over Karabakh, underscored the fragility of Aliyev's regime. Seizing upon favorable geopolitical conditions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting alliances in the region, Aliyev orchestrated a decisive military campaign, bolstered by agreements with key stakeholders such as Russia and Turkey.

Looking into the future, Alizadeh predicts minimal upheavals in the political and economic life of Azerbaijan. The country's dependence on oil and gas revenues is expected to continue, supporting its economic trajectory in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the pre-election theatricality, fundamental shifts remain elusive, leaving the future course of Azerbaijan's development virtually unchanged.

As Azerbaijan overcomes the consequences of its elections, the country is facing a familiar process characterized by entrenched power dynamics and stable economic realities. The consequences of Aliyev's electoral triumph go beyond the ballot box, shaping the contours of governance and development in the coming years.

As Azerbaijan navigates the aftermath of its electoral exercise, the nation confronts a familiar landscape marked by entrenched power dynamics and enduring economic realities. The implications of Aliyev's electoral triumph reverberate beyond the ballot box, shaping the contours of governance and development in the years to come.