The tense situation on the border. Peace talks or the resumption of conflict?

As tensions continue to simmer along the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, recent events have reignited concerns over the stability of the South Caucasus region. Reports of gunfire exchanged between units of the Armenian Armed Forces and positions of the Azerbaijani army underscore the fragile nature of the security situation in the area.

The latest incidents, which occurred on February 24th in the Kelbajar district and the Sadarak district of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, have prompted questions regarding the motives behind such provocations, particularly in the lead-up to anticipated diplomatic engagements between the two nations.

Against this backdrop, the "Difficult Question" program sought insights from Jasur Mammadov, head of the Khazar Institute of Military Studies, shedding light on the underlying dynamics shaping the current scenario. Mammadov's analysis posits a convergence of geopolitical interests and regional power dynamics as key drivers of the escalating tensions.

Central to Mammadov's assessment is the evolving geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus, characterized by Armenia's shifting alliances and aspirations for closer integration with Western military structures. The Armenian government's pivot away from its traditional alliance with Russia, epitomized by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's declarations of freezing participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has not gone unnoticed in Moscow.

Moreover, Mammadov underscores the contentious issue of the Zangezur corridor, which has emerged as a focal point of competing interests among regional powers. Azerbaijan's aspirations for territorial control and the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor project, coupled with Turkey's strategic imperatives, have heightened tensions along the border.

Mammadov posits that the recent spate of provocations may serve as a prelude to potential military operations in the region, driven by the converging interests of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. The possibility of Azerbaijan asserting control over certain territories, particularly in the Zangezur region, looms large, albeit amidst significant geopolitical complexities and constraints.

The prospect of Russian intervention, albeit indirect, underscores the intricate interplay of regional dynamics and great power politics. While Russia may seek to curb Armenia's integration with the West, the feasibility of direct intervention remains subject to a myriad of factors, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and broader geopolitical considerations.

In light of these developments, the delicate balance of power in the South Caucasus hangs in the balance, with the potential for further escalation posing grave implications for regional stability and security. As diplomatic efforts continue to unfold, the specter of military confrontation underscores the urgent need for dialogue, de-escalation, and concerted diplomatic initiatives to avert a potentially disastrous escalation in tensions.