What Impact Will the Results of the Georgian Elections Have on the Region?

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili declared she does not recognize the results of the parliamentary elections. "I do not recognize these elections. These elections cannot be recognized. It is equivalent to recognizing Russia's coming here, subordinating Georgia to Russia," she said at a briefing held on October 27.

The president also called on citizens to attend a rally on October 28. "I would like to invite all of you to Rustaveli Square tomorrow at 7:00 PM, so that together we can tell the world that we do not recognize these elections, that we are defending our constitutional right," Zourabichvili announced.

It is noted that the president made this statement following consultations with major opposition parties.

On October 26, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. According to the Central Election Commission, the ruling Georgian Dream, which critics label as pro-Russian, even calling it the "Russian Dream," received 53.9% of the vote. Four opposition parties also entered parliament, advocating for closer ties with the West.

All of these opposition parties announced that they do not recognize the election results, considering them fraudulent. The two most popular parties – the Coalition for Change and the United National Movement – declared they would refuse their mandates.

Political analyst Ahmed Alili commented on the situation in Georgia on the program "Complex Questions." According to him, "Georgian Dream" anticipated criticism regardless of how the elections were conducted, focusing instead on securing recognition of the election outcome from the U.S. and the EU to legitimize the process. For the same reason, the opposition camp has centered its strategy on the post-election period, as the main question lies in what will unfold after the elections.

Alili believes that Georgian Dream, having won between 75-80 of the 150 parliamentary seats according to preliminary data, will try to legitimize the parliament by gaining the support, in some form, of at least one opposition party. Georgian law requires a minimum of 100 deputies in parliament; otherwise, the election results are considered invalid. Therefore, Georgian Dream may attempt to draw in enough opposition members, as it did after previous elections, to ensure its influence within parliament. The likelihood of such a scenario is high, given that rivalries between opposition parties are perhaps as intense as those between the opposition and Georgian Dream supporters.

Addressing the phenomenon of Salome Zourabichvili, Alili noted that she currently serves as a unifying factor among opposition forces. He also speculated that Zourabichvili may have chosen not to pardon former President Mikheil Saakashvili to position herself as a leader of the opposition.

Alili argued that without support from the U.S. and EU, the opposition lacks the resources and capacity to prevail against Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream. He added that while Georgian Dream's political course clearly distances the country from the West, it is by no means anti-Western or anti-European.