What is Azerbaijan concerned about: foreign interference, hybrid threats, or non-systemic opposition?

A temporary commission of the Milli Majlis (MM) against foreign interference and hybrid threats has been established. The decision was made on September 30 during an MM session. MP Ramid Namazov was appointed as the chairman of the commission.

The commission will prepare reports on foreign interference and hybrid threats and develop proposals for countering such interference.

From October 2-3, the director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, visited Baku. During the meetings, he discussed the international situation and the directions of mutual cooperation between the intelligence services of the two countries. According to Russian sources, Naryshkin mentioned to journalists that Azerbaijani and Russian intelligence services had recently prevented a "provocative threat from the Americans against a Russian diplomat." He did not provide details of the incident.

Among the many threats faced by Moscow and Baku, the Russian official mentioned international terrorism, illegal migration, illegal arms and drug trafficking, subversive activities by certain state structures and non-governmental organizations, and claimed that these actors attempt to influence the internal politics of Russia and Azerbaijan.

During the meetings with Azerbaijani officials, it was noted that one of the main tasks of intelligence and counterintelligence under current conditions is the timely detection and prevention of anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani provocative actions abroad.

It was also noted that "there is a need to strengthen joint efforts to counter the use of non-systemic opposition and international terrorist organizations by foreign intelligence services to destabilize the socio-political situation in Russia and Azerbaijan."

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli addressed questions related to this visit in the program Difficult Question. The expert stated that there are no specific threats to Azerbaijan’s security. Since Azerbaijan has resolved the Karabakh issue, which was the most serious threat to its security, the emergence of similar threats in the future seems unlikely.

However, according to Mammadli, Azerbaijan has two troublesome neighbors: Iran and Russia. Officially, relations with these countries are quite normal. A Moscow Declaration (the Declaration on Allied Interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation) has been signed with Russia, and there are no current issues with Iran. However, conflicts in the broader world are creating certain threats for our region. Taking preventive measures to mitigate these threats is quite reasonable.

This is mainly because the Russia-Ukraine war is gradually weakening Russia and may partially diminish its ability to control internal processes. Meanwhile, tensions between Iran and Israel have reached an unprecedented level, posing the risk of military clashes. All this could, in one way or another, affect Azerbaijan. Therefore, taking preventive measures against external threats is quite natural.

However, according to Mammadli, to overcome these threats, it is crucial to involve not only state structures but also civil society, political parties, opposition groups, media, and the unity of all Azerbaijani society, as was demonstrated during the 44-day war. Unfortunately, Azerbaijani authorities are not taking steps in this direction. Therefore, it can be concluded that these statements about external threats either serve to manipulate society or are linked to certain geopolitical factors.

"But if this is geopolitically motivated, it means that the issue is not so much about threats as it is about interests," the political commentator concludes.