Russia Signals Interest in Azerbaijan Amid Rising Tensions with the West

In a move that underscores Russia's strategic interest in the South Caucasus, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), visited Baku earlier this week, holding high-level meetings with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and officials from Azerbaijan's intelligence agencies. The visit, held on October 2-3, highlights Moscow’s intention to reinforce its influence in the region amid a backdrop of growing anti-Western rhetoric from both Russian and Azerbaijani leadership.

During the talks, Naryshkin and Aliyev reportedly discussed a broad range of issues concerning bilateral intelligence cooperation, focusing on counterterrorism and measures to combat Western influence. According to a statement released by the SVR, the two sides addressed “hostile aspirations of Western special services aimed at undermining internal political stability” in Russia and Azerbaijan, and underscored the need for enhanced collaboration to counter external threats.

The visit, which went unreported by the Azerbaijani side, reflects the deepening alignment between Moscow and Baku. Naryshkin’s meetings with the heads of Azerbaijan’s Foreign Intelligence Service and State Security Service were described by the SVR as constructive, mutually beneficial, and centered on protecting the national interests of both countries.

This rapprochement comes at a time when President Aliyev has sharply escalated his criticism of the United States and its allies, accusing them of pursuing a policy of “ingratitude” toward Azerbaijan. Speaking to residents in the Jabrayil region on Friday, Aliyev lambasted Washington for the recent calls by American lawmakers to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan. He pointed fingers at the U.S. State Department, suggesting it orchestrated these initiatives to undermine Baku’s position.

“Sixty pro-Armenian members of Congress have called for new sanctions against Azerbaijan. This is a hostile move that will not deter us,” Aliyev declared. “They write letters to themselves, threaten us, accuse us.” He went on to criticize the U.S. for what he described as double standards, recalling that the 907th Amendment, which restricted U.S. aid to Azerbaijan in 1992, was waived only when Baku’s support was needed during the occupation of Afghanistan.

“When they fled from Afghanistan in disgrace, the sanctions were imposed on us again. What kind of friendship is this?” Aliyev remarked, adding that Western powers cannot forgive Azerbaijan for restoring its territorial integrity without their blessing.

Aliyev’s statements were echoed by Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), who claimed that Western countries are seeking to insert a NATO peacekeeping presence in the South Caucasus under the guise of a United Nations mission. Speaking at a meeting of CIS security officials in Astana, Bortnikov argued that the EU monitoring mission currently stationed on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border is conducting intelligence operations in the interests of specific NATO countries.

“The Americans and Europeans are clearly not interested in establishing stability in Transcaucasia,” Bortnikov asserted. “By inciting Yerevan to delay negotiations with Baku, the West is trying to steer the settlement process and push for the deployment of its own ‘peacekeeping’ contingent in the region.”

Bortnikov’s remarks align with the broader narrative espoused by Russian officials, who have increasingly framed the West as a destabilizing force in the post-Soviet space. According to Bortnikov, NATO’s aim is to draw Armenia away from its reliance on the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and further integrate it into Western security structures.

The European Union first established its monitoring mission in Armenia in February 2023, deploying 100 personnel with a mandate to monitor the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and help prevent a resurgence of hostilities. In December 2023, the mission was expanded to 209 personnel, a move that has been sharply criticized by Moscow.

Bortnikov warned that Western attempts to consolidate their presence in the South Caucasus could spill over into other parts of the former Soviet Union, drawing Belarus, the Baltic states, Poland, and Moldova into a wider web of conflict. He emphasized that the involvement of NATO in the region would not contribute to long-term stability.

The coordinated messages from Naryshkin and Bortnikov illustrate the extent to which Russia is recalibrating its posture in the South Caucasus, as it faces intensifying geopolitical competition. For Moscow, maintaining a strategic foothold in Azerbaijan—an energy-rich nation pivotal to the Caspian region’s stability—is critical. At the same time, Baku appears willing to lean closer to Russia, leveraging its relationship with Moscow as a counterbalance against perceived Western attempts to curtail its sovereignty.

However, Azerbaijan’s drift toward Russia is not without risks. Despite its rhetoric, Baku has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West, welcoming Western investments while sustaining close security ties with Russia. Any significant shift in this equilibrium could complicate Baku’s foreign policy strategy, particularly as it seeks to navigate the turbulent waters of the Caspian basin where the interests of great powers collide.