Can the United States Hinder the Delivery of Russian Gas to Europe?

Azerbaijan is deliberately scaling back its relations with Russia, using the crash of AZAL’s passenger plane over Grozny on December 25, 2024, as a catalyst to distance itself from Moscow. In a clear signal of deteriorating relations, Baku has officially notified the Russian government of its decision to terminate the operations of “Rossotrudnichestvo,” Russia’s cultural and humanitarian agency, within Azerbaijan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested utilizing Ukraine's gas infrastructure to facilitate the transit of Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe, signaling a potential geopolitical shift in regional energy flows as Kyiv aims to bolster its role as a key energy transit hub beyond 2024.

Tensions between Russia and several former Soviet republics have reached a boiling point, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan increasingly diverging from Moscow’s leadership. Over recent weeks, the three countries have openly criticized Russian officials' actions, signaling a shift in regional dynamics.

On December 11, 2024, permanent representatives of the European Union (EU) member states approved the 15th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation in Brussels. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the restrictions under this sanction package target a group of tankers known as the “shadow fleet.” The new sanctions will prohibit an additional 52 tankers from accessing EU ports, aiming to curb Russia's “shadow fleet.” These tankers are reportedly used by Russia to bypass restrictions imposed by the G7 and their partners for exporting oil and petroleum products.