Sanctions Against Russia are Functional but Ineffective

Tensions between Russia and several former Soviet republics have reached a boiling point, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan increasingly diverging from Moscow’s leadership. Over recent weeks, the three countries have openly criticized Russian officials' actions, signaling a shift in regional dynamics.

Russia still accounted for 15% of the EU's total gas imports in 2023, behind Norway and the US at 30% and 19% respectively, and ahead of North African countries at 14%, according to data from the European Commission.

The Russian economy is currently exhibiting signs of severe overheating, characterized by declining business activity, ruble devaluation, and increasing inflationary pressures. The Central Bank of Russia's policy of maintaining high interest rates has significantly reduced investment activity and further constrained economic growth. As a result, the economy is stagnating, concerns among large businesses are growing, and prices are rising.

On November 28, 2024, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) convened a high-stakes meeting in Astana, bringing together the Council of Foreign Ministers, Defense Ministers, and the Committee of Secretaries of Security Councils under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship. Unlike previous summits, this one cloaked its agenda in secrecy, leaving observers and analysts speculating about what might be hidden beneath the surface of discussions.