Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan: Rising Tensions with Russia and Regional Consequences

Tensions between Russia and several former Soviet republics have reached a boiling point, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan increasingly diverging from Moscow’s leadership. Over recent weeks, the three countries have openly criticized Russian officials' actions, signaling a shift in regional dynamics. These developments, triggered by incidents related to flight safety in Azerbaijan, internal political struggles in Kazakhstan, and an assassination plot in Uzbekistan, are reshaping strategic calculations in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The repercussions of these crises are likely to have far-reaching implications for both Russia and its neighbors.

Azerbaijan Suspends Flights to Russia – Embraer 190 Scandal

A scandal erupted in Azerbaijan following the tragic downing of an "Azerbaijan Airlines" (AZAL) plane by Russian air defenses on December 25, 2024. In an exclusive interview with state television on December 29, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev blamed Russia, accusing its electronic warfare systems of causing the loss of control over the aircraft. The Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, was reportedly disrupted by Russian electronic warfare systems, rendering it uncontrollable before ground fire caused further damage.

Aliyev’s sharp condemnation of Russia marked a serious diplomatic rift, as Azerbaijan quickly dismissed Russia’s initial explanations — ranging from a bird collision to a gas cylinder explosion — as insufficient. Insiders revealed that the Azerbaijani presidential aircraft "Baku-1," headed to an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg on the same day, returned to Baku due to technical issues in Russian airspace.

In response to the incident, Azerbaijan suspended all flights to several Russian cities, including Mineralnye Vody and Sochi, citing aviation risks and security concerns. The plane crash, which resulted in 38 passenger and three crew fatalities, has escalated bilateral tensions, with Azerbaijan demanding formal apologies, acknowledgment of responsibility, and compensation for the victims' families. Diplomatic relations remain strained, with Azerbaijan emphasizing the importance of an impartial investigation led by international experts. As both countries await the investigation’s results, the future of civil aviation ties remains uncertain.

Kazakhstan's Tensions with Russia and Nazarbayev Scandal

In Kazakhstan, on January 3, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev criticized his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, in an interview with the publication Ana Tili (Native Language), effectively blaming him for inciting mass unrest in January 2020. Tokayev expressed frustration over clandestine dealings involving Russian President Vladimir Putin and Nazarbayev, which reportedly undermined Kazakhstan's sovereignty. Reports of secret cooperation between Putin and Nazarbayev, who met twice last year, have raised concerns in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev, navigating a delicate political transition, views these backdoor negotiations as a threat to his authority and efforts to strengthen Kazakhstan’s independence from Russian influence. The country faces the challenge of balancing strong ties with Russia while asserting its sovereignty in a region still heavily influenced by Moscow. Kazakhstan’s growing dissatisfaction with Russian interference underscores the tension between leaders striving to modernize their nations and Russia’s insistence on maintaining dominance in Central Asia.

Uzbekistan and the Failed Assassination Plot: Regional Shockwaves

Uzbekistan also found itself at the center of political turmoil following an attempted assassination of Komil Allamjonov, the former press secretary to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The October 2024 attack, targeting Allamjonov’s vehicle, left him unharmed but revealed broader geopolitical tensions. The plot was linked to Russian Chechen militants Bislan Rasaev and Shamil Temirkhanov, prompting Uzbekistan's Prosecutor General to issue international arrest warrants against them.

The revelation came shortly after Mirziyoyev returned from a CIS informal summit in St. Petersburg and a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. Allegations of Russian involvement have strained Uzbekistan-Russia relations, as the suspects reportedly entered Uzbekistan with fake documents connected to attacks on critics of Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov in Turkey.

The incident has triggered a political crisis in Uzbekistan, with Mirziyoyev’s administration facing a dilemma. The attack represents a direct challenge to Mirziyoyev’s reform agenda, which focuses on modernizing Uzbekistan’s economy and governance. Simultaneously, the international dimension of the plot — implicating Uzbek businessmen and Chechen figures — has put the country at odds with Russia, a key economic partner. Calls have emerged to suspend flights to Chechnya and tighten scrutiny of Russian activities in Uzbekistan.

Consequences and the Road Ahead

For Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, these crises mark a significant shift in regional relations. The combined effects of Azerbaijan’s flight suspensions, Kazakhstan’s dissatisfaction with Russian interference, and Uzbekistan’s exposure of Russian agents seeking to destabilize reforms suggest a widening rift with Moscow. These three nations, once heavily reliant on Russia, are now increasingly asserting their sovereignty through the Organization of Turkic States, the SCO and transnational projects like the Middle Transport-Energy Corridor, aligning with broader regional and international interests.

The implications for Russia’s foreign policy are substantial. These incidents highlight growing dissatisfaction with Moscow’s attempts to exert influence over its neighbors and could push these countries toward alternative partnerships. Azerbaijan’s insistence on a transparent investigation may further strain relations with Russia. Kazakhstan’s assertiveness in international affairs could lead to a reassessment of its ties with Russia, while Uzbekistan’s response to the assassination plot could redefine its approach to regional security and economic cooperation.

While the outcomes of these crises are still unfolding, one thing is clear: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are at a crossroads. As each country reevaluates its relationship with Russia, the geopolitical map of Central Asia and the South Caucasus is on the brink of significant transformation. The resolution of these crises will shape not only the future of these nations but also the broader dynamics of Eurasian politics.