What Will the Protests in Georgia Lead To?

The wave of protests in Tbilisi in front of the Georgian Parliament, with demands for the government's resignation, new elections, and reaffirmation of the country’s commitment to European integration, continues to escalate.

Demonstrations that began on November 28 have spread to numerous cities, reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction. Protesters, waving Georgian and European Union flags, have filled the square in front of Parliament and parts of Rustaveli Avenue. Despite the significant presence of security forces, tensions remain high.

Law enforcement has deployed water cannons without warning to disperse demonstrators. Security forces are stationed at strategically critical locations, including Chichinadze Street and the Parliament building. A small group of protesters escalated the situation by using fireworks.

Human rights organizations have accused the police of using excessive force, highlighting the deployment of tear gas, stones, and glass bottles as crowd-control measures.

The European Union, Baltic states, and the United States have expressed support for the protesters and emphasized the importance of protecting democratic rights and freedoms in Georgia.

The situation remains tense, with more protests and clashes expected as calls for political change intensify.

Political commentator Elkhan Shahinoglu shared his insights on the events in the program Difficult Question. According to Shahinoglu, the outcome depends on the scale, intensity, and duration of the protests:

"If the protests gain momentum, they will create significant problems for the ruling party, and it is possible that new elections could be called. However, if the wave of protests weakens and the government manages to contain it, everything will return to the status quo," he said, adding that for now, the protests are gaining strength.

Shahinoglu also expressed surprise at Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s announcement to suspend the country’s EU membership application process until the end of 2028. This statement followed the European Parliament’s condemnation of the parliamentary elections held in Georgia on October 26, labeling them neither free nor fair.

"This decision was emotional and clearly not made by Kobakhidze himself but by the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. He compelled the Prime Minister to make such a statement. In my opinion, it is an ill-conceived decision," Shahinoglu noted.

According to the expert, the decision is risky and could lead to a split within the government. The resignation of Georgian ambassadors indicates the decision was a mistake, sparking public outrage and prompting residents to take to the streets.

Shahinoglu believes the ruling Georgian Dream party faces another significant challenge in the coming days:

"Presidential elections are scheduled for December 14, but they will not be based on a nationwide vote. Adding to the tension, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has refused to leave office after her term expired. This creates a scenario of dual power since the 'Dreamers' have announced former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili as their presidential candidate. Ivanishvili is creating two problems for himself simultaneously."

Interestingly, according to Shahinoglu, the protests in Georgia began spontaneously, and no opposition leader, party, or even the opposition as a whole is currently capable of leading the people's protest movement.

The expert does not rule out various scenarios in Georgia, including the possibility of a repeat of Ukraine's "Maidan" revolution.