When to expect a new escalation in Karabakh?

According to him, despite the 44-day war that brought significant changes, the Karabakh conflict remains unresolved. Presently, Azerbaijan holds a strong position with all the advantages, but De Waal warned against any military operation by Azerbaijan, as it could jeopardize the ongoing peace process and dialogue.

De Waal expressed confidence that if such a military operation were to take place, Armenian armed formations would fiercely resist in Karabakh, and he did not rule out the possibility of Armenians carrying out sabotage in various locations.

Regarding the former "commander" of the armed formations and ex-secretary of the "security council" of the irredentist regime in Karabakh proposing direct negotiations with Azerbaijan, De Waal was skeptical about this individual's credibility as a negotiating partner. He believed that the person in question might have commercial motivations and was seeking a deal with Azerbaijan, making him an unreliable negotiator.

Commenting on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's recent statements about negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, De Waal noted that Lavrov's stance did not differ fundamentally from the positions of Anthony Blinken and Charles Michel. He observed that, unlike before, Moscow did not frequently remind the parties about the trilateral agreement of November 9, 2020, possibly due to the Ukrainian factor.

The reluctance of Karabakh Armenians to use the Aghdam–Khankendi De Waal road can be attributed to their emotional state after 30 years of confrontation and the fear they harbor towards Azerbaijan. The history of conflict has left deep-seated emotions, making the situation complex and sensitive for the people of Karabakh.