Azerbaijan's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union: benefit or harm...

As Azerbaijan grapples with the prospect of joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), President Ilham Aliyev's recent remarks at the international forum "COP29 and green vision for Azerbaijan" shed light on the complexities underlying the decision-making process. While affirming that Azerbaijan currently has no plans to join the EAEU, Aliyev's acknowledgment that future considerations hinge on potential economic benefits underscores the nuanced calculus at play.

Established in 2014, the EAEU comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Fuad Gahramanli, a member of the PPFA Presidium, in a commentary for Radio Azadlig, casts doubt on the purported economic advantages of EAEU membership, suggesting that the institution primarily serves as a vehicle for Russia's economic influence in the region. Gahramanli's skepticism reflects broader concerns about the political motivations driving Azerbaijan's potential alignment with the EAEU.

Indeed, amidst geopolitical uncertainties, Azerbaijan's reluctance to outright reject the EAEU reflects a pragmatic approach to international relations. Gahramanli suggests that recent negotiations between Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin hint at Baku's hesitance to fully commit, particularly in light of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Vahid Ahmadov, a member of the Milli Majlis, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the need to await the resolution of global dynamics before considering EAEU membership.

Natig Jafarli, a member of the political committee of the real party and an economist, underscores the empirical realities shaping Azerbaijan's economic landscape. Jafarli's analysis, grounded in statistical data, suggests that Azerbaijan's economic ties with the West far outweigh any potential benefits of EAEU membership. He highlights the threat of indirect sanctions associated with EAEU participation, citing examples from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Crucially, the debate surrounding EAEU membership reflects broader tensions between East and West in Azerbaijan's foreign policy calculus. While Gahramanli emphasizes the imperative of free market relations and Western investments, Ahmadov stresses the importance of maintaining balanced relations with neighboring states. The divergent perspectives underscore the delicate balancing act facing Azerbaijani policymakers as they navigate competing geopolitical interests.

As Azerbaijan weighs the costs and benefits of EAEU membership, President Aliyev's cautious approach reflects a recognition of the multifaceted considerations at stake. In a rapidly evolving global world, Azerbaijan stands at a crossroads, poised to chart a course that balances strategic interests with economic pragmatism.