Economist, ‘Between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance there is disagreement as to the fate of the manat’

Inside the government of Azerbaijan there is uncertainty about the fate of the national currency. Between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance there is disagreement on this issue, says the economist Samir Aliyev.

In his profile on the social network Facebook the economist wrote about it, noting that differences in the government are due to the fact that one party takes the soft view, while the other party is interested in the sharp devaluation of the national currency.

‘So far, the former group controls the situation. If the latter group possesses the advantage, as it was during the previous devaluations, the manat will sharply get cheaper. In any case, the soft devaluation policy should be continued, because the consequences of the sharp devaluation have not been removed yet,’ Aliyev wrote.

He noted that in June and July AZN became cheaper by 3.3% each month. According to him, in August it will be the same.

‘Since June, at foreign exchange auctions the demand outstripped the supply by 10-12 times. The rise in price of oil did not save AZN either,’ Aliyev wrote.

According to him, in September, there will not be conditions to ensure the stability of the manat. The economist believes that even if a foreign exchange auction offers 600 million dollars and it meets the needs of the commercial banks, there is no guarantee that subsequent auctions will not indicate additional demands.

‘There are formal and informal capital outflows from the country. And the influx of currency into the country has decreased. Of the channels which serve the influx of currency into the country, only SOFAZ is active. For a long time, the Central Bank has not been involved in the foreign exchange market and has been saving its reduced reserves,’ the economist said.

According to him, another channel on the inflow of currency into the country is SOCAR, but now the company is engaged in its own problems.

Aliyev recalled that imports of gasoline AI-92 will cost the company 40 million dollars a month.  ‘It is possible that SOCAR will take this amount from the market and therefore the main burden will fall on the State Oil Fund,’ he said.

The expert stressed that in 2016 SOFAZ has sold $ 3.2 billion and it does not intend to sell more than the limit imposed on it. And the Central Bank during this period has sold 800 million dollars and it will not allow the reduction of its reserve below 4 billion.

‘The oil price has established at $ 45-50 and a sharp rise in oil prices is not expected. The US Federal Reserve will hold three sessions this year and it is expected to raise the discount rate at one of them. This means there are no internal or external factors that would contribute to the AZN rate,’ Aliyev concluded.

Note that earlier in an interview with Turan, Aliyev predicted that by the beginning of September USD 1 will be worth 1.65 AZN and by the end of the year it will become 1.80 AZN.    -----76B