Azerbaijan`s relations with the Western Balkans. Important political and energy aspects

Azerbaijan's relations with the countries of the Balkan Peninsula are developing steadily, cooperation has intensified in recent years, and the strengthening  Azerbaijan's role in ensuring the energy security of Europe, which is trying to reduce its traditional dependence on Russia, especially against the background of the Russian Federation's war in Ukraine, plays an important role in this.

On the Balkan peninsula there are:

Albania, a NATO member;

Bulgaria, a member of NATO and the EU;

Bosnia and Herzegovina;

Greece, a member of NATO and the EU;

Romania (geographically part of the territory), a member of NATO and the EU;

North Macedonia, NATO member;

Serbia (partially);

Slovenia (partially), a member of NATO and the EU;

Turkey (partially), a NATO member;

Croatia (partially), a member of NATO and the EU;

Montenegro, a member of NATO.

As a multinational and multi-confessional state, it is not difficult for Azerbaijan to maintain relations with all the Balkan states. And the presence of hydrocarbons and their successful export, the solution of the problem of restoring territorial integrity (the return of territories captured by Armenia in the 90s in the second Karabakh War), have increased the importance of Azerbaijan in the eyes of the EU, with which the country can sign a strategic partnership Agreement in 2023.

The events in the world over the past two years, especially Russia's violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the attempt to annex its lands, make many recall the bloody Balkan crisis, and many experts fear that the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will fan the "smoldering embers of discord" among some Balkan countries.

The EU leadership, which pays priority attention to the situation in Ukraine, does not lose sight of the negotiations with the Western Balkan countries on Kosovo (the last round of such multilateral consultations was in March this year in Brussels).

At the same time, according to independent Azerbaijani experts, the EU has secretly and informally given certain peacekeeping powers to the leaders of those states that maintain friendly and even strategic relations with the Western Balkan countries.

Among such political figures is the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, whose frequency of meetings with the leaders of the Western Balkan countries over the past 1-1.5 years has been unprecedented.

The formal reason is the desire of these countries to diversify energy sources, and interest in gas from Azerbaijan, which commissioned the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) towards Europe in December 2020 and intends to double its capacity by 2027.

According to the results of negotiations in Baku in the summer of 2022, the head of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev actually announced that the Western Balkans region could become a priority market for gas from Azerbaijan, and the EU wants to help the states of this region get rid of coal within the framework of EU Green Deal strategies.

Such a decision gave impetus to numerous visits and meetings between Aliyev and his Western Balkan colleagues both at the bilateral level and on international platforms, and the agenda of such negotiations is not limited to gas issues, but also includes discussion of political problems and prospects for trade and transport cooperation.

In order not to be unfounded, it should be noted that only during the six-month period, Aliyev met twice with the Chairman of the Presidium of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zhelka Cvijanovic (a Strategic Partnership Agreement was signed in Sarajevo on April 13, and the previous meeting was held on March 1 in Baku as part of the Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement Contact group on combating COVID-19).

The President of Azerbaijan met with the leadership of Albania in November and December 2022, as well as on March 12, 2023 (he hosted the President of Albania Bayram Begaya in Baku).

In the second decade of December 2022, Aliyev met with Serbian President Alexander Vucic in Baku.

Among the negotiations of the President of Azerbaijan in 2023 with the neighboring countries of the former Yugoslavia are two meetings with the Prime Minister of Hungary, one with the President of Bulgaria, one with the President of Romania and one each with the Prime Ministers of Croatia and Montenegro.

Political experts believe that Aliyev has built trusting partnerships with the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Albania (she plays an important role in resolving the Kosovo issue), and it is possible that Aliyev was chosen as an additional, shadow impartial mediator.

Vucic does not hide his sympathies for Aliyev at all and stated that "Serbia knows that Aliyev and Azerbaijan are reliable partners not only for us, but for everyone (in the Balkans)…We have to sign agreements on all issues of a transparent protocol, but Aliyev's word is enough for us."

For Albania, a decision was made in Baku to open the Azerbaijani embassy in Tirana, to help with the "blue fuel" to the Albanian city of Korca, as well as to supply 200 million cubic meters of gas to Albania for a new thermal power plant by 2026 (gas will be supplied by a Greek company through TAP — the European section of the SGC).

After holding talks in Sarajevo on April 13, Aliyev also instructed the relevant structures to study the prospects for the delivery of Azerbaijani gas to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), investment projects in various fields.

"The position of Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding the territorial integrity, sovereignty and inviolability of the borders of Azerbaijan was very important for us, especially during the occupation of the territories of Azerbaijan. Two and a half years ago, when Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity during the Second Karabakh War, Bosnia and Herzegovina firmly supported Azerbaijan and supported our just cause. This is a position of friendship and brotherhood. Azerbaijan, in turn, unequivocally supported the interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina in all matters, including territorial integrity, sovereignty and inviolability of its borders," Aliyev stressed on April 13 following a visit to Sarajevo.

He expressed hope that the SGC will be extended through interconnectors to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

AZERBAIJAN'S GAS FOR THE BALKANS

In an interview with ASTNA, an informed source in the Azerbaijani government explained that gas delivery via the SGC to the Western Balkans can physically be carried out through the interconnectors IGB (via Greece and Bulgaria), IAP, BRUA, the Bulgaria-Serbia gas pipeline.

The IGB was commissioned in 2022, and the Bulgaria-Serbia gas pipeline (Dimitrovgrad-Nis) is expected to be commissioned in 2023.

According to the BRUA project, which is supported by the EU (the Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria interstate gas pipeline system), the first stage of work on the territory of Romania was completed in 2020, then Romania connects with the infrastructure of Bulgaria and Hungary, and such work is underway.

As for the Ionic Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) project with a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, with a length of about 540 km (from the Croatian Split and further through Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and to Bosnia and Herzegovina) and a cost of 600 million euros, its idea appeared 16 years ago, but still not implemented.

"The EU has become uninterested in the IAP project, and without the financial support of the EU, it can hardly be implemented," an expert familiar with this issue said in an interview with ASTNA.

In September 2019, four gas transmission operators - Montenegro Bonus, Albgaz, BH-Gas (BiH) and Plinacro (Croatia) agreed to create a joint venture for the construction of the IAP gas pipeline, but since then there has been no progress on the project.

At the same time, in 2022, it was stated that Albania was waiting for 1 billion cubic meters per year with the IAP, Montenegro - 0.5 billion cubic meters/year), the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1 billion cubic meters/year, Croatia - 2.5 billion cubic meters/year.

The actual freezing of the IAP project forces these countries to develop other gas procurement projects.

For example, Montenegro is studying the LNG terminal project on its territory, the first stage of the Krk terminal is successfully operating in Croatia and its expansion is planned, Albania is also negotiating with American investors and SOCAR to create a liquefied gas terminal.

Azerbaijan itself, which is due to reach the peak of gas production in 2023, is also clarifying resources for further increasing exports of "blue fuel" to the EU from 2027 (the EU wants 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Azerbaijan against the current 11-12 billion cubic meters) and commercial aspects of such possible supplies (Baku is interested in 15-year contracts, but they go against RePower EU).

It is possible that Aliyev's shuttle diplomacy in the Western Balkans, in which the West is interested, will lead to Baku achieving certain concessions and long-term supplies of Azerbaijani gas to Europe, which has recognized that it may need "blue fuel" until 2023-40.