Lithuanian visit under sanctions

The key issue of the Azerbaijani President's visit to Lithuania on May 19 was sanctions against Russia. It was this issue that Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda highlighted in his speech after talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

"In the context of the brutal war waged by Russia against Ukraine, our partnership takes on a new meaning...We must work together, blocking Russia's ways of circumventing sanctions, and support Ukraine until victory," Nauseda said.

Lithuania, along with Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, most zealously advocates a tough and uncompromising position towards Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine. However, the EU's unity on sanctions against Russia has begun to falter, as concerns about how they will affect the European economy weaken the resolve to put pressure on Russia.

On December 15, EU leaders agreed to a ninth package of sanctions, but negotiations were fierce: Poland and the Baltic states, neighboring Russia, advocated tougher measures, while Belgium and Greece, Hungary, which is still heavily dependent on energy imports from Russia, opposed further large-scale measures, diplomats told Reuters EU.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the sanctions agreement a "missed opportunity," saying he was disappointed that EU countries were spending more time discussing exceptions than tougher steps.

Lithuania is also known as an effective mediator in the relations of the Eastern Partnership countries with the EU, and in particular Azerbaijan. Vilnius has implemented 17 EU twinning projects in Azerbaijan, focusing on such areas as transport security, environmental protection, pension reform and healthcare, and energy. It is no coincidence that Aliyev noted that two months after President Nauseda's visit to Baku in May last year, a memorandum on gas cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union was signed, which gave rise to the launch of a number of projects involving Azerbaijani gas in the Balkans. Last year, Azerbaijan increased gas supplies to Europe by 3 billion cubic meters, reaching 12 billion cubic meters. This was achieved due to the growing gas production on the Caspian shelf. By 2027, supplies to Europe will reach 20 billion cubic meters. And by the end of this year, gas will already be delivered to Hungary and Slovakia.

The topic of Azerbaijan's possible circumvention of sanctions did not arise by chance. Since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Armenian experts have consistently promoted fakes about Russia's use of Azerbaijan's infrastructure for large-scale supplies of Russian gas and oil to world markets, bypassing sanctions.

Traditionally, but with some interruptions in the past years, Azerbaijan and Russia have cooperated in the field of seasonal exchange of natural gas, ASTNA, the analytical service of Turan, noted. Azerbaijan supplied gas to Russia in the summer season, somewhere in the range of 0.5-1 billion cubic meters, a similar volume of gas in the winter season, Russia supplied to Azerbaijan. From December 2022 to April 1, 2023, “Gazprom” supplied about 1 billion cubic meters of gas to Azerbaijan. That was the end of the cooperation.

As for oil, Lukoil used the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to transport its oil from the Russian shelf of the Caspian Sea. Pumping volumes reached 2 million tons. Due to the entry into force of anti-Russian sanctions from December 5, 2022, the pumping of Russian oil was stopped.

It is not known what Aliyev replied in this regard in a private conversation with Nauseda. At a briefing in Vilnius, he skirted the topic of the war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan's participation in sanctions. Aliyev diplomatically preferred to talk about bilateral relations and Lithuania's role in establishing Azerbaijan's cooperation with the EU.

In the matter of choosing a position in relation to Russia, Aliyev is unlikely to be among the radical Baltic States. He is more inclined to occupy the European rank along with Greece and Hungary, although we should not forget about the tandem game with Turkey in matters of geopolitics. The strategy of equidistance, inheritance from his father, Heydar Aliyev, remains a priority: he supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, supplies humanitarian supplies, while not showing zeal within the framework of the sanctions policy. In such cases, Aliyev prefers to talk with intermediaries about the development of trade and economic relations, so as not to overshadow a friendly conversation with his counterparts.