China projects stability at Boao forum, but structural risks cloud outlook

When the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) convened its annual summit this year, two South Caucasus countries were noticeably absent from its inner circle. Azerbaijan and Armenia, both aspiring to at least observer status, faced obstacles not from Moscow or Beijing but from the regional rivalry between India and Pakistan.

When Xi Jinping addressed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin this week, his tone carried ambitions that stretched well beyond a Eurasian security bloc. What began in 2001 as a regional club aimed at counterterrorism and border disputes is now being cast by Beijing as nothing less than a vehicle to reshape the global order — with China at its center.

Amid waning U.S. influence and Moscow’s loss of control, a new player is quietly but steadily entering the geopolitics of the South Caucasus — China. Traditionally focused on its immediate neighborhood and global trade arteries, Beijing has in recent years expanded its footprint across the turbulent trio of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. China’s growing presence — spanning trade, infrastructure, diplomacy, and soft power — is having far-reaching implications for Eurasian connectivity, regional equilibrium, and the global order.

The state visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to China from April 22 to 24, 2025, marked a significant recalibration of Baku’s foreign policy, elevating bilateral ties with Beijing to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Amid an evolving geopolitical landscape characterized by intensifying competition over energy, connectivity, and influence, the agreement signals both countries’ intent to deepen cooperation across sectors ranging from green energy and infrastructure to culture and defense diplomacy.