China’s Strategic Rise in the South Caucasus Reshapes Regional Power Balance

When the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) convened its annual summit this year, two South Caucasus countries were noticeably absent from its inner circle. Azerbaijan and Armenia, both aspiring to at least observer status, faced obstacles not from Moscow or Beijing but from the regional rivalry between India and Pakistan.

When Xi Jinping addressed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin this week, his tone carried ambitions that stretched well beyond a Eurasian security bloc. What began in 2001 as a regional club aimed at counterterrorism and border disputes is now being cast by Beijing as nothing less than a vehicle to reshape the global order — with China at its center.

The state visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to China from April 22 to 24, 2025, marked a significant recalibration of Baku’s foreign policy, elevating bilateral ties with Beijing to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Amid an evolving geopolitical landscape characterized by intensifying competition over energy, connectivity, and influence, the agreement signals both countries’ intent to deepen cooperation across sectors ranging from green energy and infrastructure to culture and defense diplomacy.

The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan came at a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, highlighting the bloc’s ambitions to reshape the global order while also revealing the significant challenges it faces. The five-member coalition—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—sought to deepen their influence over global financial and governance systems, particularly in response to Western dominance. Despite the summit’s success in laying out a vision for a more multipolar world, the divergent interests of its members and the complexity of its goals make the road ahead uncertain.