Moscow Raises the Stakes as the West Braces for a New Phase of the War

When air raid sirens once again echoed across Kyiv on the night of May 24, residents of the Ukrainian capital already sensed this would not be another routine episode in the long cycle of war. For hours, the sky above the city flashed with interceptions of missiles and drones, while Ukrainian Telegram channels circulated images of fires, shattered apartment blocks, and broken windows in museums and libraries. For many Ukrainians, the night became a symbol of how the conflict is evolving from a battle between armies into a war of societal exhaustion.

In the marble halls of Ashgabat, the heads of government of the Commonwealth of Independent States once again spoke on Friday about transport corridors, digital transformation, and a shared future. Yet behind the official rhetoric of another CIS Council of Heads of Government meeting lay a far deeper question: can an organization created after the collapse of the Soviet Union preserve political and economic relevance in a world of new conflicts, sanctions, and shifting trade routes?

The large-scale military and political expansion carried out by the Russian Empire in the Caucasus from the mid-eighteenth century until the end of the nineteenth century fundamentally transformed the ethno-demographic structure of the North Caucasus. In particular, the destruction of a significant portion of the Circassian (Adyghe) population and their forced displacement to the Ottoman Empire during the Caucasian Wars of 1763–1864 remains a serious and controversial subject in modern historiography. These events are evaluated not only as a military conflict, but also as the collapse of a social structure, a process of forced migration, and the formation of a long-term diaspora.

The history of the Crimean Tatars remains one of the key intersections of memory, sovereignty, and security dilemmas in contemporary international politics. Speaking on May 18 during the anniversary of the deportation of the Crimean Tatars, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the deportation carried out by the Soviet authorities in 1944 as “an open act of genocide against the Crimean Tatar people.” He stated that thousands of people died during the deportation and in the years that followed.