Electoral competition in a stagnating economic system

The reason behind the 47th President of the United States declaring, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the sole winner in Syria and a strong leader. Erdoğan is a smart man,” lies not only in the present-day developments in Syria but also in events that unfolded six years ago. Indeed, it was Donald Trump who, in June and July of 2018, sent a series of tweets that destabilized Turkey’s economy in response to Turkey’s refusal to release an American citizen. By September of that same year, however, Trump supported Turkey’s role in backing jihadist forces that settled in Idlib and established an administrative structure there.

As the conflict in Syria enters a new chapter, Turkey has emerged as the dominant player on the ground, wielding military and intelligence operations to shape outcomes in its favor. However, Ankara now faces a pivotal moment: Can it sustain its strong role in Syria amid growing economic strain, geopolitical complexities, and the uncertain future of the Syrian state?

In a world that often measures revolutions by their ability to disrupt, Syria’s journey, which began with the Arab Spring of 2011, represents a chronicle of shifting ideologies, geopolitical maneuvers, and relentless human loss.

I am once again flipping through the 2015 book "Syria. When you fail, resist" by my esteemed friend Fehim Taştekin, one of the best journalists who knows the Middle East.